Mexicans blame US for arms trafficking and reject the possibility of foreign agents operating on their territory

Insecurity, poverty and corruption. Mexicans clearly identify the weaknesses of their country and there is no survey that says otherwise. Sometimes one issue stands out above the rest, but the triad remains unshakeable no matter how many years go by. And it is inevitable for Mexicans to gaze towards the United States when these matters are discussed, aware that these evils go back and forth across the border between the two countries. In a survey carried out by Enkoll for EL PAÍS and W Radio between December 12 and 14, a sizable share of respondents (72%) attributed the responsibility for arms trafficking to the United States, but showed awareness that collusion with crime is rooted in the Mexican political and police system, in which they have lost their confidence. Mexicans also lack faith in the justice system to fight this scourge. And the return of Donald Trump to the White House does not exactly look like an element of hope.

In the battle — sometimes concealed and sometimes out in the open — that the United States and Mexico constantly maintain over the serious problems that they share, Claudia Sheinbaum’s government points to the volume of weapons entering Mexico from the U.S., while the latter protests against the drugs that the cartels introduce into American territory, causing serious addiction pandemics, for example, with fentanyl. When respondents (there were 1,200 personal interviews) were asked about the 70% of weapons that circulate illegally in Mexico, 72% blamed the United States to a greater or lesser extent, while 38% awarded it a high degree of responsibility. That is the message that the Mexican government has been repeating since the previous six-year term, under Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and no one seems to doubt it anymore.

The diagnosis is clear, but the remedy against the violence that comes from this exchange of weapons and drugs is another matter. Insecurity and drug trafficking are underscored as the main problems, a tandem that accumulated 45% of responses; the economy, with unemployment at the top, ranked as the second most widespread problem (27%); and in third place came corruption, which is largely part of the same criminal network, with 14%. But the solution that American leaders threaten from time to time — sending troops into Mexico to end crime — is not acceptable: 58% of Mexicans would not allow that to happen if they were consulted about it. Here, again, we can see the message of national sovereignty that is so often repeated by the governing Morena party. Yet nationalism in this matter is not cut and dried. The idea that collaboration with the U.S. could reduce the violence they experience on a daily basis may be present in the minds of many Mexicans: a considerable 40% would consent to American agents operating in Mexico on these missions.

The possibility of allowing foreign forces to operate on Mexican territory is a reflection of the lack of confidence that people have in their own security system, with the police, the Attorney General’s Office and the judiciary among the most discredited institutions in the country. None of these institutions offer peace of mind to even half of the population. Federal efforts to combat crime and corruption within police ranks and political forces have not made great inroads among the people. A recent raid against mayors and police commanders in several cities in the State of Mexico, the so-called Operación Enjambre, has been one of the loudest messages of the Sheinbaum presidency in its bid to clean up the institutions, yet 53% of respondents had not even heard of it. And only 34% trust that such operations against crime will bring them added security. A further 36% said they would feel just as insecure and 7% even more insecure. The underlying assumption is that if people do not trust the justice system, it will be of no use to arrest mayors and police officers.

The entrenched violence that Mexicans deal with on a daily basis, sometimes with a certain amount of anesthesia, is now compounded by economic concerns over the return of Trump to power. Threats of tariffs have been recurrent in the Republican’s election campaign, as has the deportation of migrants and the introduction of taxes on remittances that Mexicans in the U.S. send to their families back home, and which represent a phenomenal support for the Mexican domestic economy. In recent years, there has been excitement about the possibility of more jobs and economic growth thanks to the relocation of American companies to Mexican soil, an expectation that is now dissipating in the face of Trump’s bravado: 52% of those surveyed believe that the decisions made by the Republican magnate will greatly affect Mexico in terms of the economy and employment. And that is a concern shared by both the followers of the party in government (47%) and those of the opposition (between 54% and 64%).

Sheinbaum’s high approval ratings have not managed to clear the clouds that loom over Mexico in economic matters. There have been constant clashes between Trump and the president in recent weeks, which has sown concern among the population, although it is believed that Sheinbaum will be able to emerge unscathed from this tussle. Thirty-four percent believe that her dealings with Trump will produce even greater benefits than those obtained by former president López Obrador. The unknowns will be cleared up when Trump takes office in January, and Mexicans will find out if his threats become actual policies, and to what extent.

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