Claudia Sheinbaum’s time: Challenges and unknowns of Mexico’s first female president
The president-elect will take office on October 1 to deal with issues from security and the economy to justice
For the first time in its history, Mexico will wake up to a woman at the helm. And that’s not the only change. On October 2, one of Mexico’s most influential political figures in recent decades will leave the stage. After four months of farewells and a “farewell tour,” Andrés Manuel López Obrador, 70, will pass the baton to his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum. Eight years López Obrador’s junior, Sheinbaum takes the reins of a country besieged by violence and facing a possible economic downturn, not to mention being on the verge of carrying out one of the most complex and controversial judicial reforms in decades. Add to the list a decimated health system and unfinished infrastructure work and Sheinbaum has plenty on her plate.
The new president takes power following a landslide victory. Elected by nearly 35.5 million Mexicans — almost 60% of the electorate — she won the most votes of any president in Mexican history. But the challenge she faces now is enormous. López Obrador leaves office with an 80% approval rating, having chalked up a number of impressive social advances. But urgent issues remain with those in the realms of security, the economy, and justice being the ones that will mark the first months of the new government.
In the last six years, Mexico has not managed to contain its alarming epidemic of violence. The country registers more than 30,000 murders a year. Once-safe states have become potentially explosive, as inter-cartel and inter-factional fighting terrorizes entire cities. Sheinbaum has chosen her former Mexico City police chief, Omar Garcia Harfuch, to head the Public Security Secretariat. With a strategy focused on strengthening the country’s investigative and intelligence capacity, García Harfuch will turn his focus first on Chiapas and Sinaloa.
The trafficking activity of criminal groups along the U.S.-Mexico border has left hundreds dead and more than 10,000 displaced in Chiapas. Despite the deployment of the military, the state continues to be hijacked by crime. In the north, the arrest in the U.S. in July of Sinaloa Cartel leaders Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Joaquin Guzman López, son of the infamous drug lord El Chapo, has simply triggered a new wave of violence as the remaining heavyweights fight over control of the organization. The war between Los Chapitos and the faction loyal to El Mayo has forced the suspension of classes in schools and national holidays in part of the state.
A monster called Pemex
In terms of the economy, Mexico is Latin America’s second-largest, but it has been showing signs of an economic downturn for months. The IMF has reduced its growth outlook to 2.2% and production and consumption have fallen. Moreover, the fiscal deficit has doubled in the last year and now stands at 6% of GDP. The public imbalance is one trillion pesos ($50.7 billion), the highest figure on record for the Mexican Treasury. This hole in the country’s finances narrows any room for maneuver, and Sheinbaum will have to performing a juggling act from day one to tighten López Obrador’s portfolio, released during the last part of his government. Having entrusted the Ministry of Economy to former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, and having kept Rogelio Ramírez de la O in the Treasury, Sheinbaum is left with two options: either to issue more debt and raise taxes, which experts believe is unlikely, or cut the budget.
The new administration will also have to deal with the elephant in the room: Pemex. With debts amounting to $99.4 billion, the state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos is the most indebted oil company in the world, and its production continues to decline, with barely 1.7 million barrels per day. The next director, the academic Víctor Rodríguez Padilla, will take control of a company that is losing ground despite millions being injected and tax remissions in its favor. In the global context of transitioning to other cleaner energy sources, Pemex is, according to the US Institute for Climate Responsibility, the ninth mostpolluting oil company in the world.
Mexico’s finances will not be helped by the new judicial reform, heavily criticized by economists and investors. Approved before López Obrador left office, the controversial initiative requires 1,600 posts within the judicial system to be elected by popular vote, including judges, magistrates, and ministers of the Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation (SCJN). The organization of these elections is going to dominate the beginning of Sheinbaum’s administration; in Mexico City alone, citizens will have to decide approximately 350 appointments, which means looking at more than 2,000 candidates. In June 2025, half of these judges will be elected at the ballot box, with a second phase to be completed in 2027. López Obrador has also left pending the approval of a package of major reforms for the next six-year term, including the disappearance of autonomous entities and an increase in the number of crimes subject to unofficial pre-trial detention.
The leader’s shadow
A country where 10 women are killed every day — more than 3,600 a year — has elected its first ever female president. Sheinbaum comes to power on the back of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), the party founded by López Obrador. Governing Mexico City between 2018 and 2023, Sheinbaum will now have to work hard to succeed her predecessor, who enjoys immense popularity and also power within the Morena movement. Although López Obrador has announced that he is retiring from public life after 30 years to live on his ranch in Tabasco, in southern Mexico, his son Andrés López Beltrán will remain as the party’s Organization Secretary.
Both praised and criticized, the outgoing president changed the rules of political communication when he announced in 2018 that he would appear before the press every day. These conferences, called Mañaneras, last between two and three hours and are used to set agenda items, praise his officials, or criticize his adversaries. With a communicative profile very different to that of López Obrador, Sheinbaum has announced that she will maintain these press conferences, although the format has yet to be revealed. This should happen when she gets the green light on October 2. It is time for the president to roll up her sleeves and make the role her own.
Sign up for our weekly newsletter to get more English-language news coverage from EL PAÍS USA Edition