Ukraine opens a second flank of attack on Russian territory

The Ukrainian Army has opened a second flank of attack in the Russian province of Kursk. The new flank is located about 25 miles from the area where the surprise offensive began on August 6. Since Sunday, fighting has been taking place in another location on Russian territory, in the border town of Tyotkino. The aim of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to surround the Russian defenders in the Glushkovo district of Kursk, which would mean they would control another 231 square miles of Russian territory.

The operation to encircle the Russian troops in Glushkovo has been carefully prepared, and it is where that the soldiers of Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, are focusing most of their efforts of the push into Russian territory. The west and south of the district are delimited by the border with Ukraine. To the west, across the Seim River, a new flank has been opened in Tyotkino. The eastern end of Glushkovo contains the Russian territory under Ukrainian control. This is where the Russian units in this district are facing greater pressure. The north of Glushkovo is marked by the Seim River. That’s where the Ukrainian strategy has hit its target. On Sunday, the third and last bridge that was still in use in Seim was destroyed by the Ukrainian Air Force. The other two bridges were previously destroyed by Ukrainian missiles. Without these three river crossing points, the Russians may be cut off. What’s more, their ability to send reinforcements and military logistics is now severely limited.

Last March, Tyotkino saw military incursions from Ukraine, but these were carried out by units of the Freedom of Russian Legion, one of the Russian armed groups that oppose Russian President Vladimir Putin and are fighting for Ukraine. Ukrainian defense analysts expect that fighters from these Russian units — the Freedom of Russian Legion, the Sibir Battalion and the Russian Volunteer Corps — will join the operation in Kursk in the future as reinforcements.

John Helin, an analyst on the Ukraine war for the Finnish group Black Bird, believes that an imminent Ukrainian push from Tyotkino and even a new flank from the south is very likely, as the Russians are resisting Ukraine’s troops in the town of Korenevo.

The Russian military is already deploying pontoons to replace the bridges that were destroyed in Seim. “While building a pontoon crossing over the Seim River, which is 30 to 80 meters wide in this area, isn’t difficult for the Russian army, pontoon crossings have limited capacity, so the flow of traffic is much slower,” reported Defense Express, a Ukrainian media outlet, specialized in military analysis.

Defense Express also pointed out that Ukraine’s air force can destroy the pontoons with precision missiles. Satellite images confirmed on Tuesday that one pontoon was destroyed by Ukrainian forces on Sunday, just 48 hours after being installed. Ukrainian military accounts on Telegram have also shared videos of drone bomb attacks on Russian vehicles transporting sappers (combat engineers), who were getting ready to build mobile bridges in Seim.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Friday that Ukraine had made it impossible to evacuate civilians by destroying the bridges. Moscow accused Ukraine of using Himars precision missiles in the attack.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday called on his allies to speed up arms deliveries, and for the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and France to authorize the use of long-range missiles on Russian soil. NATO-provided ammunition and infantry armor are playing a decisive role in the invasion of Russian territory. Zelenskiy — the main supporter of the Kursk offensive — reported on Ukraine’s progress at a meeting with his diplomatic corps: according to the head of state, Ukraine has 482 square miles and 92 Russian towns under its control.

Zelenskiy stressed that the Kursk invasion should serve to demonstrate to his NATO partners that they should not be afraid of Putin’s threats of escalation: “Just a few months ago, many people around the world would have said that it [the Kursk offensive] was impossible and that it would cross the strictest of all the red lines that Russia has. That is why, actually, no one knew about our preparations.” “We are now witnessing a significant ideological shift,” the Ukrainian president said. “The whole naive, illusory concept of so-called red lines regarding Russia, which dominated the assessment of the war by some partners, has crumbled these days.”

The Ukrainian leader stressed that two main objectives of the operation in Kursk have been achieved: creating a safe zone on the border against Russian military actions and capturing hundreds of prisoners of war, who will be used to free Ukrainian soldiers captured by Kremlin troops.

Risky gamble

The Ukrainian leadership knows that time is running out. It is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain military aid from its allies. The German government’s draft budget includes a severe reduction in military support for Ukraine, and Ukraine is also facing the possibility of a Donald Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election. Trump is in favor of halting aid to the country. Amid this background, Zelenskiy wants to speed up future peace negotiations with Russia, which for now, are exclusively based on his terms.

In this context, the Kursk offensive is understood as a penultimate and risky Ukrainian push to take the initiative in the war and reach a hypothetical negotiating table with more leverage. A source close to Zelenskiy’s team told EL PAÍS on Saturday that the Kursk invasion is a risky gamble by the president: “If it goes well, it will be a huge success for the citizens, but if it goes wrong, the responsibility will fall on him.”

There are three different scenarios in which Ukraine’s operation on Russian territory could backfire. First, Moscow could manage to force Ukrainian troops back at Kursk by destroying a large number of armored vehicles and artillery pieces — a move that is already happening. And the further Kyiv’s troops advance into Russia, the more exposed the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the more vulnerable their supply chain will be.

Secondly, the occupation of Russian soil may not serve as an asset to negotiate with the Kremlin what the Ukrainian government has defined as “a just peace.” Alexander Graef, a researcher at the Institute for the Study of Peace and Security Policy in Hamburg, told this newspaper on August 14 that he sees it impossible for Putin to accept any dialogue as long as part of Russia is under Ukrainian occupation.

And thirdly, that the Kursk incursion may not stop Russia’s rapid advance on the Donetsk front. Alarm bells are already ringing, even in the military establishment, because Russia has not yet sent many of its experienced units in Donetsk to Kursk, where the defense of the region falls mainly on new recruits. On the contrary, it is the Ukrainian army that has moved the most assets from Donetsk to Kursk. “I don’t know yet whether this is a great idea or a suicidal move,” said Helin about the Kursk incursion. “What I do know is that there are many risks, and one is that it has weakened defense of the Donetsk province by diverting Ukrainian forces to Kursk.”

The situation in Donetsk is particularly serious in Pokrovsk: Russian forces are just six miles away from the town. On Monday, the head of the city’s military government, Serhii Dobriak, told Radio Svoboda that civilians have two weeks to evacuate their homes, arguing that starting next week, the increasingly close fighting will make life in the area unviable: “Currently, all services and agencies in Pokrovsk are operating. However, their work will soon have to be halted.”

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