An endless game of cat and mouse

It is difficult to think that a candidate facing an uphill battle like Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba believes that he can win the general elections. It is far more reasonable to assume that in reality the Socialist prime-ministerial hopeful is simply attempting to avoid an absolute majority for the Popular Party and a crushing defeat for his own that would condemn it to years in the political wilderness.

Only from this point of view is it possible to understand the extremely risky strategy that Rubalcaba set in motion during Monday's debate: speaking of his opponent as though resigned to the fact that he is going to win - "I am going to tell you what you are going to do, you are going to lower unemployment benefits."

The objective was evident from the first moment: to break the fundamental strategy of Rajoy over the last few years, which consists in not laying out his toughest policy plans, to avoid generating unease.

Rubalcaba attempted, time and again, to paint Rajoy as a representative of the companies, an ally of the CEOE employers' association, who will lower jobless subsidies and leave Spaniards who work for small and midsized companies without contracts and at the mercy of businessmen who will force through salary cuts.

Time and again, with every type of technique, with the PP's platform document at hand and occasionally as though he was an interviewer to whom Rajoy would not respond, Rubalcaba tried to demonstrate to viewers that the PP leader has a hidden agenda. But in front of him he encountered a brick wall who avoided answering any questions. "That is a lie," he said at one point. Rajoy did not wish to enter into anything. He played for a tie, to win without setting foot on the field, as he likes to do. Neither did he want to debate over taxes, when Rubalcaba laid out his idea of taxing the wealthiest, as in France, or taxing the banks, as in Britain.

The PP leader did not bother to bring out his own proposals. The Socialist candidate took all the risks with his own. He talked of reorganizing investments in defense, but above all about asking the EU for a two-year moratorium on deficit-reduction measures, because the cutbacks are suffocating any chance for economic growth. Rajoy had everything prepared and so as not to stray from the script he read constantly from his papers, while Rubalcaba did not. Rajoy consulted his notes 585 times to Rubalcaba's 48.

In reality the format of the debate, with long monologues - although there were some rapid exchanges providing the night's liveliest moments - was perfect for Rajoy to avoid answering the questions of his opponent. Furthermore, he had an ace up his sleeve if things became complicated: the five million unemployed.

Rajoy had another enormous advantage: he could fall back on disastrous economic data, which he did at every opportunity, to the extent that Rubalcaba snapped: "I think the unemployed hope for something more from us and not only that we say they are unemployed. They want solutions."

There were few surprises. Although Rajoy, who had prepared lots of data, seemed not to know his own platform while Rubalcaba, who grew in stature as the debate went on, had clearly studied his own. The PP leader knew that Rubalcaba would try to mobilize abstentionists by painting the image of a harsh new regime.

He dodged the blows, let time pass and in sensitive matters, such as pensions, recovered his poise before stating: "I am not going to freeze pensions." But he was talking about 2013. It is still not clear what he will do with the 2012 budget, as if he extends it the freeze the Socialists applied will be maintained.

The tensest moment arrived when Rubalcaba, as expected, attacked the PP over policies pursued by the Madrid regional government. "With the PP, education and public health are not guaranteed," he said after citing the example that 80 percent of immigrant children attend public schools while the region has boosted aid to elite education. Rajoy interrupted several times: "This is deceit," "that is not true," and "you have to prove that." Rubalcaba invited Rajoy several times to read the press to inform himself.

At certain moments there were signs of disdain. Rajoy, little accustomed to being grilled, made great efforts to maintain the calm demeanor he had prepared: "Let me speak! The debate's not going too badly for you, don't get nervous," he blurted out at one stage.

Time was running out for Rubalcaba in the debate - there will be only one - and Rajoy was still batting back all the balls sent his way. So it was that in the final phase, the one the PP feared most because abortion and gay marriage could be brought up, Rubalcaba went for the jugular: "I find it strange that people so liberal in economic terms are opposed to the morning-after pill. You have made a legal challenge against homosexual marriage. Tell those who are already married not to be fearful, that nothing will change, that they will continue to be married. Tell them!"

Rajoy, once again, dodged the bullet. Rubalcaba persisted. And Rajoy once again ducked the issue. And in this manner, in a continuous game of cat and mouse, the debate drew to a close. And there will not be another one.