The campaign decides

With the gap in the polls at 15 points in the Popular Party's favor, it's very unlikely that the election campaign, which kicked off last night at midnight, is going to see a different winner to the one expected. What is still unclear, however, is whether or not Popular Party leader Mariano Rajoy will end up governing with an absolute majority or will need to form pacts with other parties. It also remains to be seen whether the results will mean that Socialist Party candidate Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba heads up the opposition and whether the party will be able to condition the policies of the new government, not to mention being considered as a competent alternative to the PP.

The campaign itself, in particular the TV debate between Rajoy and Rubalcaba, will be the last opportunity for the parties to try to convince voters who are unsure of whether or not to vote of reasons to do so. And that may directly influence whether or not the winning party gains an absolute majority. In the latest polls published in EL PAÍS, a small majority said it would prefer the winning party to govern alone, without the need to form pacts with other parties. That is an issue about which the PP is very clear, but it divides the Socialists, after their experiences during the last two legislatures. One outcome that is widely predicted from these elections is the possibility that should the main parties fail to win an absolute majority, UPyD, the party led by Rosa Díez, could play a role of complementing the winner that nationalist parties have played in recent years.

Regardless of their political preferences, the vast majority of the public thinks that the PP is going to win on November 20, which is why they feel that rather than choosing the prime minister, they are picking the future leader of the opposition (and, in this specific case, the new party leader). The results will also condition whether the party should be recognized as a viable alternative in the short or medium term. The recent experience in Europe suggests that the crisis will do away with the party in power, but it will also quickly sink the party that follows. A modest result on November 20 for the Socialists will avoid disorder, and will allow them to recover in opposition the credibility they have lost in government.

Faced with the difficulty of distancing himself from the austerity plan that has damaged Zapatero so much, Rajoy has been saying since May 2010 that the solution to the crisis and unemployment is that he should govern, and that early elections should be called, without saying what he would do once he was in power. Faced with Rajoy's strategy of avoiding controversial policies, which could mobilize Socialist voters, Rubalcaba has resorted to accusing the PP of having a hidden program of cuts that are much more drastic than those put in place by Zapatero, and has been calling on them to reveal this agenda. This is a variation on the tactic of calling for votes in order to avoid "the same old right wing returning," which is something that is identified as a threat to democracy and the welfare state. It's a line of attack that under current circumstances has little chance of convincing a doubtful electorate.

The contradictory character of the anti-crisis measures suggested by the experts (prioritizing getting the deficit under control and stimulating growth, above all else) has pushed the candidates to choose their own according to their ideological standpoint. Just as his PP predecessor José María Aznar did in 1996, Rajoy is proposing tax cuts in order to energize the economy and the labor market, something that would also, he argues, raise tax income and bring down the deficit.

For that to work he would have to cut public spending, and declare where he will make such cuts, Rubalcaba argues. The Socialist candidate's approach involves raising taxes on the richest in order to subsidize employment, bringing the deficit under control without cutting back the welfare state, and calling on the European Union for a massive investment and stimulus plan. They must debate these issues on TV on Monday, and give the public reasons to vote. Reasons, not just calls for confidence.