The final countdown

The Popular Party (PP) and United Left (IU) both held conventions this past weekend, so that now all the principal political forces have started up their machinery for the November 20 elections. The Socialist Party (PSOE) did this some days ago, approving its slates of parliamentary candidates. The landslide PP victory predicted by the polls has dimmed public interest in the internal workings of the parties, which are not expected to influence the results.

Not even the party organizations seem to believe that the various electoral slates are going to change a decision that voters appear to have made some time ago. Since before the summer, if not earlier, the country has been in a countdown, tedious and devoid of hope, waiting only for the elections to take place.

Nor have the party-program conventions of recent weeks succeeded in awakening interest, though the causes of this incapacity for mobilization are different in the cases of different parties. The PSOE convention was disappointing because, as well as the strategic errors that the candidate Rubalcaba may have committed, it was perceived as a political gathering of the second order, which was nevertheless expected to brighten the gloomy prospects now facing one of the country's major parties.

It is unlikely that a full-scale convention would have done so either, given the outgoing prime minister's deeply deteriorated image. But it would at least have placed this party in a more solid situation to cope with the long crossing of the desert that seems to lie ahead, once it goes into opposition. As things now stand, on the day after the elections the Socialists may find themselves with no leader, no program and a paltry parliamentary representation, as well as being out of power in most municipal and regional governments.

If the PP's convention, meanwhile, has not been a rousing one either, this was due not so much to inability as to a lack of desire. Its strategy has not varied since the economic crisis broke, and consists of keeping the spotlight on the government's mistakes, while taking care not to reveal any concrete proposals of its own that might alienate its voters, or mobilize those of its adversaries. When the PP reveals any concrete proposal, it is because it is sure of receiving general applause — even if this involves irresponsible populism, such as when it speaks of restoring life imprisonment.

In other areas, ranging from economic policy to laws concerning abortion or homosexual marriage, the PP prefers vagueness. The bad "legacy" received from the Socialists will serve as an excuse for any unpopular measures.

Barring surprises, the elections seem likely to follow the script written during the course of this legislature. The PP trusts that it will now rake in the profits of its inaction. The Socialist Party expects to receive a resounding punishment vote. And the United Left and other splinter parties are preparing to glean some votes among the debris of the Socialist shipwreck.