Rajoy, on the eve of victory

On Monday the prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, announced the dissolution of parliament, prior to calling general elections for November 20. The end of the legislature is also the farewell to a Socialist leader who led his party to an unexpected victory in 2004 and now, seven-and-half years later, leaves it to endure what may be its worst defeat. The economic crisis obviously stands out as the necessary cause of this transit from the height of expectations to the abyss of political discredit. The sufficient cause has to be sought, however, in the mistakes committed during Zapatero's sojourn in the prime-ministerial residence.

His style of governing has been personal rather than institutional, tending to disregard the fact that the hierarchical structure of Cabinet and ministries, though it limits the propagandistic exploitation of the leader's wise moves, on the other hand offers him a hedge, minimizing the personal attrition caused by unwise moves and downright failures. Voluntarily placing himself right up front, Zapatero frittered away his credibility with the same speed with which he had won it. In particular, once the crisis had broken, he tried first to deny its existence, and later to fight it with propaganda coups and improvisation. The abrupt U-turn in economic policy in 2010, even if justified and necessary, finally crippled his capacity for leadership.

The main difference between Zapatero's first legislature and his second was the intrusion of the reality principle, in the form of the inexorable rise of unemployment and the accelerating deterioration of the public accounts. If this intrusion had not happened, Zapatero would be highly esteemed for his initiatives in the area of civil rights, and for his abstinence from exercising control over public radio and television. The failure of the attempt to negotiate an end to the violence of ETA was offset by an extraordinary weakening of the terrorist organization's capacity to act. It is too early to say whether the one led to the other, or whether the slow but unstoppable decline of terrorism made further negotiation unnecessary. Regional claims to self-rule, treated with some frivolity during the first legislature, have emerged with new vigor in the second.

If the forecasts are right, Popular Party (PP) leader Mariano Rajoy is now on the verge of taking the reins of government in the midst of a crisis situation. Such is the depth of the country's economic plight, it cannot be ruled out that social tensions may erupt in the street. In keeping this from happening, or in capable management of the situation should conflict come to the surface, is where the political fate of our new leaders will be at stake, and that of the country as well.

We can only hope that the next government will correct the mistakes of the previous one, but not undo the things it has done well. The recent PP-led attempt to recover control of the RTVE public broadcasting corporation does not augur well. Nor do certain measures adopted in public health and education in some of the PP-run regional governments.