Socialists prepare for early general elections

Prominent members of the Socialist Party (PSOE) have begun working toward possible early general elections in November should José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero decide not to see out the remainder of his legislature.

Although the oft-reiterated public and official party line is that the beleaguered Socialist leader will hang on to the reins of power until next March, PSOE sources have hinted there are many factors that could lead to bringing forward the national polls. Among these, the most pressing is the loss of support for Zapatero and the party.

However, the same sources state that concluding economic reforms and allowing the Socialist Party to recover from its hammering in the May 22 elections work in favor of holding off until March. Zapatero, in either instance, will have the final word.

One line of thinking has it that Deputy Prime Minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba will be best off continuing his Socialist Party leadership campaign from the summer, through the party convention in September and into a November poll.

Sources close to the prime minister say that Zapatero will do "what is best for Spain and for the party, in that order."

Meanwhile, contact is being kept up with the two main nationalist groupings, the Basque PNV and Catalan CiU, in order to pave the way for final negotiations on the 2012 budget in the fall. Under Zapatero, the Socialist Party has governed without a majority in Congress for the past seven years.

What the nationalists have to weigh up is whether an early election suits their interests. An absolute majority for the Popular Party, not inconceivable after the conservatives' record showing in the May 22 regional and local ballots, would eliminate the PNV and CiU's capacity for leverage in national politics.