Socialists head for mauling in Madrid ballot
Latest poll shows governing party slumping to miserable defeat with Popular Party's Aguirre reelected on back of landslide majority
The hard-fought primaries that ended with Tomás Gómez heading up his party's electoral list in Madrid was not the turnaround the Socialists had been hoping would rouse left-wing voters in the region. On the contrary, it appears as if Esperanza Aguirre is headed towards herthird consecutive term as regional premier on May 22, with an even larger percentage of the vote than four years ago, according to a Metroscopia survey for EL PAIS.
With just three weeks to go before the elections, the poll shows the Popular Party once again governing the region of Madrid, with 75 seats, or 10 more than is needed for an absolute majority and eight more than they currently occupy. The Socialists will be hard put just to match their results in the previous elections, when candidate Rafael Simancas was so badly defeated, with 33.5 percent of the vote, that the party dropped six points from 2003. This will give them 41 seats, one less than they currently have.
The PP's victory will rest squarely on Aguirre's strong leadership. She is the most popular candidate, enjoying high ratings in the region. According to the poll, 58 percent of Madrileños feel she has done a good job. Aguirre has a considerable lead in the race with Gómez. Of the two, Madrileños believe she know regional issues better (57 percent as compared to 13 percent), she inspires greater confidence (46 percent over 29 percent) and has the clearest ideas (57 percent over 18 percent).
Majority reject candidates under legal investigation
An overwhelming majority of Spaniards reject outright the inclusion in electoral lists of candidates who are under legal investigation, but this does not mean they will retaliate at the polls against parties that do include such candidates, according to a recent survey by Metroscopia for EL PAIS.
Some 83 percent of those surveyed believed that politicians who were subject to ongoing legal investigations, or involved in legal suits that are still pending, should not be presented as candidates.
There are a number of such cases relating to the upcoming municipal and regional elections, according to an EL PAIS study, which found that more than a hundred of the politicians running were currently under investigation for corruption. In clear disregard of public opinion, the country's main parties have both included such candidates in their lists. The Popular Party (PP) hosts half of the candidates identified in the EL PAIS study, with the Socialists responsible for just over a third.
Few parties are completely unsullied, however. Others such as Catalonia's nationalist bloc, CiU, and the United Left are also presenting candidates now under judicial investigation.
Perhaps the list that most stands out is that of the Popular Party in Valencia, where several candidates, not the least of which is current regional premier, Francisco Camps, are suspected of accepting bribes in the ongoing Gürtel case. Ironically, all the ratings polls indicate that Camps is likely to regain a comfortable majority in the upcoming elections.
Pessimism
If nothing else, the Metroscopia survey shows that when it comes time to cast a vote, Spaniards tend to set aside their personal opinions of candidates. This trend is compounded by high levels of pessimism concerning the political situation in the country and the low ratings of leaders, starting with Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and PP leader Mariano Rajoy.
Despite Rajoy's low popularity rating, the survey suggests his conservative party could still win next year's general election by an even wider margin than the Socialists enjoyed in 2004 and 2008.
Indeed, the Metroscopia survey concluded that the Socialists could suffer a resounding defeat in this month's elections, with the PP currently holding a lead of 5.8 percentage points throughout Spain.
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