Griñán in a tight corner

The resignation of Luis Pizarro, the head of administration and justice in the Andalusian regional government (known as the Junta), and the serial resignations of his vice-councilor, José Antonio Gómez Periñan, and two subordinate directors, adds a new crisis to the many that the Andalusian Socialist Party has undergone since 2008.

When the former regional premier Manuel Chaves joined Zapatero's national government, plans for succession in the Junta were hastened. The premiership passed to José Antonio Griñán, but the regional party leadership remained in the hands of Chaves, in a two-headed arrangement that has caused friction ever since. The resignation of Pizarro, one of the figures who did most to raise Griñán to the premier's office, takes place against a backdrop of growing tension between the Andalusian government and the party that sustains it.

These internal difficulties come at the worst moment for the regional Andalusian Socialist party, and also for the national Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE). The scandal over the fraudulent use of aid to firms in difficulty points to the end of an era of three decades in power for a regional party that can do little to arrest the downward trend in its electoral results, all the more so when it is divided. Though the regional elections in Andalusia will not take place until next year, the municipal elections in May are likely to show the dimensions of the discernible shift in voter preferences.

A significant setback for the Socialist Party in Andalusia would have consequences at the national level, given that this region, together with Catalonia, has long served the national PSOE as a solid voter base - but it may now be crumbling. Such is the expectation of the opposition Popular Party, which is gearing up its rhetoric to weaken the Griñán government as much as possible.

This is why the vicissitudes of the crisis in Andalusia are of deep concern to the party's national leadership, though the first comments on the issue have strived for a show of normality, suggesting that this is merely a routine Cabinet reshuffle. But Pizarro is not just any member of the Griñán government; he is considered to be the strongman of the Andalusian Socialist Party, after Chaves. His resignation is not just a crisis in the regional government, the fourth since Griñán has headed it; it also confirms the failure of the succession model used in Andalusia. Regional leaders are not ruling out the possibility that the struggle for control of the party may jeopardize Griñán's own candidacy for the premiership.

The resignation of Pizarro and the other high-ranking officials leaves an undefended flank for the whole Socialist Party. This is not necessarily unexpected, but it is inopportune, after Zapatero's announcement that he will not be a prime ministerial candidate in the next general election. While the Socialists need to convey the impression that their leadership changeover will take place in an orderly manner, episodes such as this one tend to dramatize the uncertainties of the process. And the pressure can only get heavier with the approach of local and regional elections in May, after which the result of next year's general elections will be more at stake than ever for the PSOE.