US Embassy doubts Lugo's abilities

Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo's term began in 2008 with a series of disturbances and destabilizing maneuvers from the opposition, whose members accused the former Catholic bishop a few months after his inauguration of incompetence, favoritism and encouraging a class struggle.

His critics also blame him for the growing insecurity in the country and say he is promoting political stalemate.

"He promised changes but has not complied," the US Embassy in Asuncion wrote in a cable sent to Washington, which forms part of the WikiLeaks release of classified documents.

American diplomats blamed the unrest and two attempts to overthrow Lugo ? one by military force and another through a parliamentary measure ? on Lino Oviedo, a retired general who was once arrested in 1996 on conspiracy charges, and former President Nicanor Duarte (2003 -2008).

The US Embassy said that Lugo needs to achieve success because, if he does not, there are dangers he could face a possible censure motion, which would lead to the destabilizing of his government.

The situation is so tense and complex that recently, while Lugo was on an official visit to Vietnam, his vice president, Federico Franco, called a press conference to accuse him of influence peddling. In particular, Franco alleged that Lugo was putting family and friends in top government positions. Diplomats have described Franco as "having a colossal ego and a complex personality."

In 2008, a coup was averted when army general Máximo Díaz told Lugo that he had been invited to a meeting with Oviedo and Duarte to discuss the possibility of a military takeover. In November 2009, Lugo replaced the chiefs of the army, navy and air force with men he could trust.

The Paraguayan leader, whose term is up in 2013, was elected on a platform that was supported by leftist parties and center-right groups, but they have now distanced themselves from the former priest. Lugo wanted to change the country's institutional structures to implement policies that help promote greater social justice in a nation where large gaps in family income, huge pockets of poverty, and misery and corruption run rampant.

"His reportedly already-strained relationship with Vice President-elect Federico Franco indicates that he may not be able to work effectively with influential members of his own alliance (let alone with the Colorados). But he also has demonstrated an iron will, and is not easily moved from strongly held positions of government, State, family and friends," reads a cable from June 2008.

The Catholic Church also has its doubts about Lugo's ability to govern. Asuncion Archbishop Eustaquio Pastor told US diplomats that Lugo has been "a great leader in the church" but "has no idea how to govern."

Just as the coup attempt fizzled out, so did the parliamentary motion to censure the Paraguayan leader. However, members of the country's diplomatic corps continue to "hear rumors of a possible constitutional coup."

"Lugo generally connects well with people (although he is reportedly uncomfortable with women) and has thus far been successful in attracting a diverse support base," said one cable describing him. "Personally a quiet, unpretentious and serene individual, Lugo cares little for physical possessions. He typically wears sandals, because that is who he is. (He says he has owned two suits in his life; one for high school graduation and another for his ordination. He bought his third for the May 16 Ibero-American Summit in Lima, Peru.)"

The US Embassy also reported behind-the-scenes movements by Oviedo and Durate to position themselves in line for the presidency. After Duarte won a seat in parliament he tried to "maneuver" his way to become Senate president so he could assume the role of third in line to the presidency.

Both Oviedo and the former president have tried to control Congress through different means, the US diplomats reported.

"Taking into account the nightmare scenario that would result if Oviedo and Duarte were to direct the show, the political consensus, at least among the more reasonable thinkers, remains strong: President Lugo is the best option among the worst choices."