The 1944 treaty under which Trump accuses Mexico of stealing water from Texas

A ghost from the past has resurfaced between Mexico and the United States. Amid a severe drought, a trade war, and the tariffs Donald Trump has threatened to impose, the 1944 Water Treaty is the new point of tension between the two nations.

Last Thursday, the U.S. president threatened to impose taxes “and perhaps even sanctions” until Mexico complies with an ancient water treaty dating back to 1944. “Mexico owes Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water,” the Trump stated on his Truth Social platform.

“Mexico has been stealing the water from Texas farmers [...] Just last month, I halted water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty. We will keep escalating consequences, including tariffs and maybe even sanctions, until Mexico honors the Treaty, and gives Texas the water they are owed!” he added.

The 1944 Water Treaty Trump is referring to establishes that both nations must share the water from the rivers that flow along their borders. The agreement dictates that the countries must divide the resource equitably according to their needs: the United States must deliver 1.85 billion cubic meters of water to Mexico each year, while Mexico must send approximately 2.158 billion cubic meters in five-year cycles.

The next cycle will end on October 24, 2025. Mexico must comply with the water volume corresponding to the current cycle, plus a debt carried over from the previous five-year period.

The treaty establishes and delimits the rights of Mexico and the United States over the international Tijuana, Colorado, and Bravo rivers — or the Rio Grande — and assigns each country a certain amount of water. The treaty stipulates that of the total water in the Rio Grande basin, only 432 million cubic meters are for the United States, with the remainder for the benefit of Mexico.

However, when the treaty was signed 80 years ago, it did not take into account the problems of drought and the increasing population on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border.

President Claudia Sheinbaum has asserted that Mexico is complying with the water treaty and has highlighted the severe drought affecting various regions of the country, which has prevented it from fully adhering to its part of the treaty.

"It's been three years of drought, and to the extent water is available, Mexico has been complying. The International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC) has continued working to identify solutions that are favorable to both countries," Sheinbaum remarked.

The National Water Commission notes that the treaty is flexible regarding the delivery of water by both nations, and that Mexico has the option of compensating for any shortfall in the next cycle, although noncompliance in two consecutive periods is prohibited.

This is not the only tension that has arisen between Mexico and the United States over water. In 2020, the situation escalated into violence when Chihuahuan farmers affected by the intense drought took control of the La Boquilla dam in the border area in an attempt to stop the flow of water into the U.S.

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