Donald Trump, US president in advance

The spectacular reopening ceremony of Notre-Dame Cathedral in Paris gathered some of the world’s top leaders, eager not to miss one of the year’s most significant events. Donald Trump was in his element. Just before the ceremony, he met with French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine. Later, inside the cathedral, he chatted with Polish President Andrzej Duda, shook hands with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and smiled at European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. He was the main protagonist, the man everyone wanted to greet. In the background was the official representative of the White House, First Lady Jill Biden. President Joe Biden had been invited but chose to remain in Washington.

With just six weeks until his inauguration on January 20, the U.S. president-elect is already acting as though he were in power, particularly on the international stage. From Paris, he took to social media to declare that the United States would not participate in events in Syria: “The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved!”

Trump warned Hamas that there would be “all hell to pay” if Israeli hostages in Gaza were not released by the time he took office. He dispatched his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, for talks with Israel and Qatar on Gaza. Qatari Prime Minister Mohamed Bin Abdelrahman al Thani said Saturday that there had been “a lot of encouragement from the incoming administration in order to achieve a deal, even before the president comes to the office.”

Trump also issued a warning to the BRICS countries regarding their still unclear plans to create a common currency to rival the dollar, and announced he would block Japanese company Nippon Steel’s bid to buy US Steel.

His announcement that he would impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China over fentanyl trafficking triggered a call from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and a whirlwind visit by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Meanwhile, Biden, his Democratic predecessor, is increasingly fading into the background.

One president only

Tradition, the Constitution, and the protocols of each outgoing administration in the United States are clear: only one president is responsible for making decisions at any given time. Before inauguration, the elected president should focus on preparing for the transition and assembling their government team.

But since his decisive electoral victory, Trump has acted as if he were already in office. His statements, appointments, and the media attention he’s garnered have overshadowed Biden’s administration in recent weeks, drawing attention to Biden’s political and physical decline. This week, Biden’s visit to Angola, his first and last trip to Africa, went almost unnoticed, with the focus instead on his decision to pardon his son Hunter. His attendance at the APEC summit in Peru and the G-20 in Brazil 10 days earlier also failed to make a mark: in the latter event, he arrived late to the family photo, and was left out of it.

Trump, meanwhile, announced his visit to Paris and made a surprise appearance at the presentation of the 2025 Club World Cup, which will be held in the U.S. At the event, FIFA President Gianni Infantino introduced him as the “president of the United States,” omitting the “elect” title.

Even his transition team was beginning to boast of “promises kept.” In a press release last week, it argued that, just over a month before his inauguration, Trump was already “securing our border” with his threats to Mexico and Canada over fentanyl and illegal immigration, claiming “both countries have already pledged to take immediate action.” The statement also credited Trump for Iran’s failure to respond to Israel’s October attack, and claimed that “negotiations to end the war in Gaza and Russia’s war in Ukraine have accelerated” thanks to his influence.

Given the length and complexity of presidential transitions in the U.S., it’s not uncommon for an elected leader to speak out about their plans or show interest in the issues they will inherit. For instance, Dwight Eisenhower visited Korea before his inauguration in 1953 to assess firsthand whether the Korean War (1950-1953) could be won.

It’s also not uncommon for outgoing administrations to brief their successors on international issues or even request their cooperation. When the financial crisis erupted in late 2008, the George W. Bush administration tried to enlist Barack Obama’s help in passing an asset protection law, though the president-elect declined. However, there are some notable exceptions. The Eisenhower administration, for example, failed to inform John F. Kennedy of a plan to invade Cuba, which ended up developing into the abortive invasion of the Bay of Pigs.

But Trump’s domineering behavior during the transition is unusual, says Barbara Perry, co-director of the Presidential Oral History Program at the University of Virginia. “Norms and traditions exist for a reason,” she says. “The Supreme Court ruled in 1936 that the Constitution’s intent was for the country to speak with one voice on foreign policy, and that voice to be the president.”

One reason for limiting the elected president’s actions during the transition is the risk of triggering unintended consequences that could raise questions about responsibility. “For example, if, following his threats to Hamas, the group decides to execute the hostages, who do we hold responsible?” Perry asks.

Trump’s dominant personality and his previous term as president (2017-2021) also play a role. “His voters elected him to be the bull in a china shop, so they like that he’s behaving this way,” Perry explains.

Another reason is Biden’s own physical and political fragility. “There is a perception of a void among Americans due to Joe Biden’s physical and mental decline, the defeat of his replacement Kamala Harris, and even now the pardon of Hunter Biden. Donald Trump is filling that void,” Perry believes.

The Biden administration has not commented on the incoming president’s behavior. Some of Trump’s interventions have, however, helped resolve issues: his meeting with Ron Dermer, one of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s advisers, helped broker a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. The White House has consistently reiterated its commitment to facilitating a smooth and professional transition of power. “The president has been consistent on this that he wants to make sure across the administration,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on November 23, “hat we are doing everything that we can to effect a professional and an orderly transition. And we continue to urge the incoming team to take the steps that are necessary to be able to facilitate that on their end as well.”

Trump’s moment of truth will come on January 20, when the “bull in the china shop,” as Professor Perry described him, will be completely free to implement his promises to upend the system. It will then be seen how far he is willing or able to go in fulfilling them

However, the very system Trump seeks to dismantle has already signaled that it won’t be so easily undone. His original pick for the Justice Department, Congressman Matt Gaetz, was forced to resign due to resistance in Congress following rumors of alleged sexual relations with minors. Meanwhile, his nominee for Defense Secretary, Fox News host Pete Hegseth, is battling allegations of drinking problems and sexual abuse, which could put his candidacy in jeopardy.

These challenges may continue in the future, given the narrow Republican majority in Congress: 53 to 47 in the Senate and just 220 to 215 in the House of Representatives. “Their majority in Congress is very slim. It’s not clear whether Republicans will be able to maintain party discipline in support of the president,” said Jay Rosengard, a professor of Public Policy at Harvard University, in a video conference on Thursday.

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