The Latino male vote, Kamala Harris’s great challenge

With three weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and polls predicting an extremely close race, the campaigns of both candidates are going after undecided voters. Among these, Latino voters stand out: one in four remains unsure about which way to cast their ballot, according to a recent New York Times-Siena poll. The majority of these undecided voters are inclined to support Kamala Harris, but there are differences between genders. A solid majority of Hispanic women have a positive opinion of the vice president and a negative opinion of former president Donald Trump. In contrast, Hispanic men are more divided on both candidates, according to an Associated Press poll.

About six in 10 Hispanic women have a somewhat or very favorable opinion of the vice president, compared with 45% of Hispanic men. Similarly, half of Hispanic women voters think Harris would make a good president, compared with just a third of Hispanic men.

With the aim of regaining the male vote, last week the Democrats launched the Hombres con Harris (Men for Harris) campaign in the key states, those where neither candidate has a clear advantage and which will end up determining who will be the next occupant of the White House.

“The campaign is about reaching Latinos where they are: in small businesses, in barbershops, in sports bars, and holding events like a barbecue,” says Maca Casado, Coalitions Media Director for the Harris-Walz campaign, in a telephone conversation. The medium and the environment in which it will take place, as well as the participation of other Latino men with influence in the community, are the axes of the campaign. Rather than sending a specific message to Latino voters, “we are looking for innovative ways to reach them,” Casado adds.

Hombres con Harris was launched by Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz at an event in Arizona on October 9, which was also attended by state Congressman and Senate candidate Rubén Gallego. Some of the party’s most influential spokesmen are collaborating in the campaign, such as California Senator Alex Padilla, who has already visited barbershops in search of Hispanic support. Campaign events will take place in several cities in key states such as Arizona (Tucson, Phoenix, Yuma, and Nogales), Nevada (Las Vegas, Reno, and Sparks) and Pennsylvania (Philadelphia and Lehigh Valley).

Additionally, members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and celebrities such as Jaime Camil, Aaron Dominguez, Guillermo Díaz, Nick Gonzalez and Al Madrigal will participate. The campaign will also include ads on the most-viewed television shows among the male electorate, such as sports events, as well as sports radio programs and video game sites such as IGN.

“We know that we have to make an effort to reach Latino men and that we have to have a detailed, culturally competent program to talk about the things that concern them most,” explains Casado. Chief among these is the economy.

The economy, above all

Cost of living and inflation remain, by a wide margin, the top issues for Latinos in the battleground states. Fifty-nine percent cite it as the main issue, according to a poll released Tuesday by BSP Research in collaboration with the organizations Latino Victory and the Hispanic Federation. Employment (38%) and access to housing (32%) rank high after inflation. The poll was conducted among 1,900 Latino registered voters in eight battleground states between October 2 and 10, and has a margin of error of 2.3%.

Hispanic men are more likely than Hispanic women to view Trump as the candidate who represents their views on key issues such as the economy. And the mass deportation of immigrants that the former president is promising is supported by a third of this electorate, according to the New York Times-Siena survey.

Despite the fact that there is still a high percentage of undecided voters, Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race and the subsequent nomination of Harris generated enthusiasm in key segments of the Latino population, with 60% of those surveyed by BSP Research responding that they are more interested in voting. “The survey makes it clear that the transition from Biden to Harris on the Democratic ticket created a wave of enthusiasm and support among Latino voters. Harris continues to increase her support compared to August and it is clear that Latino voters can cast decisive votes in states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and more,” said Matt Barreto, founder and president of BSP Research. Enthusiasm is higher among younger and Spanish-speaking Latinos.

Polls offer varying data, but in general terms they all show that the majority of Latinos prefer Harris, with support between 56% and 62%, compared to 34% to 37% for Trump. However, there is a clear decline in support among Hispanic voters for Democratic candidates, which has been steadily falling since the 66% that Hillary Clinton garnered in the 2016 elections, in which Trump obtained just 28% of the Latino vote.

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