Apparent assassination attempt against Donald Trump shakes up the campaign, once again

The apparent assassination attempt against Donald Trump on Sunday adds yet another unexpected twist to the U.S. presidential campaign with the most shocks in recent history. Political scientists often talk about the “October surprise,” meaning an unexpected event or revelation that emerges shortly before the November election and can change the course of the campaign. This year, however, there have been surprises in June, July, August and September, many of them momentous enough to go down in the annals of history. The latest incident at Donald Trump’s golf club in Florida, which the authorities are treating as an assassination attempt, has once again shaken up a campaign in which the polls indicate a technical tie between the Republican candidate and his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris. The Republicans, who mostly reacted with a message of unity after the first assassination attempt, have now rushed to blame the Democrats.

On June 27, the most consequential presidential debate in American political history took place. It revealed that President Joe Biden was too old to run for re-election. Then, with Biden still refusing to throw in the towel, the attack in Butler, Pennsylvania, took place, in which a gunman shot Trump from a rooftop while the candidate was at a rally. A bullet hit him in the ear, although it could have killed him. Trump reacted by raising his fist in the air as a trickle of blood ran down his face. That iconic image increased his lead in the polls.

The week after the attack, the Republican convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin ratified a triumphant Trump as their nominee even as Biden realized that he was not in a position to compete with him. This triggered another historic turn in the campaign. The president withdrew from the race and and handed over the baton to Kamala Harris, who quickly garnered the support of the entire party. In August, the Democratic convention crowned her as the presidential candidate, becoming the first nominee since 1968 who has not gone through the primaries system.

The enthusiasm generated by the change allowed Harris to take the lead in the popular vote polls, but the election will depend on tens or hundreds of thousands of votes in a handful of decisive states and there, the swords are still high. The previous milestone of the campaign, the debate between Harris and Trump last Tuesday in Philadelphia, seems to have barely moved the needle in terms of voting intention, even though all serious polls show the Democratic contender as the undisputed winner.

As Trump stewed in his own frustration — declaring himself the winner of the debate while blaming the moderators for losing it — he took a break from campaigning in Florida, where he usually resides. On Sunday morning, he had tweeted on Truth, his social network, “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT” (in capital letters), after the artist announced her support for Harris following the debate. He then went to play golf, his favorite sport, at his club. That was when the shooting incident took place.

Secret Service agents tasked with protecting the former president spotted a suspicious person hiding in the bushes with a rifle while Trump was golfing. The officers opened fire. The suspect, later identified by authorities as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, a man with a criminal record and an obsession with Ukraine, got into his vehicle and drove away but was stopped at a roadblock. Agents found a semi-automatic rifle with a scope in the perimeter of the compound.

Although Trump thanked the authorities for their “absolutely exceptional” work, the new attempt to assassinate Trump raises questions about the work of the Secret Service. The attack was prevented and the failures were not as obvious as they were in Butler, but the fact that a person in possession of a rifle with a scope could have been so close to Trump calls into question once again the effectiveness of the protection.

Uncertain consequences

The political consequences of this second assassination attempt are highly uncertain. The first attack favored the former president in the polls and prediction markets, which have barely budged this time. Compared with the shooting of Butler in July, in which a bullet slightly wounded him in the ear and the secret service had to evacuate him from the stage of the rally while the incident was being broadcast live, this second attempt lacked that drama.

Trump emerged from the first attack as a hero. This time there were no images of the former president, who was playing golf. It is also unclear how much danger he was in. Being the victim of an attempted attack usually increases citizens’ empathy and feelings of solidarity with the target of the attack. On the other hand, Trump has embraced and defended some episodes of political violence (such as the assault on the Capitol) and has been a divisive and polarizing figure in American politics.

On Monday, as he left the White House for an event in Philadelphia, Biden called on Congress to approve more resources for security. “One thing I want to make clear is that the [Secret] Service needs more help. And I think Congress should respond to their need,” he said, before adding: “Thank God the president is fine,” referring to Trump.

Vice President Kamala Harris on Sunday condemned political violence and said she was “deeply disturbed” by the attempted assassination of her rival. “As we gather the facts, I will be clear: I condemn political violence. We must all do our part to ensure this incident does not lead to more violence,” Harris said in a statement. “As President Biden has said, our Administration will ensure the Secret Service has all the resources, capabilities, and protective measures necessary to carry out its critical mission,” she added.

The Republican response has been aggressive. “You are so full of shit. You are not glad he is safe, it is your rhetoric that caused this, AGAIN!!!!!” tweeted Dan Scavino Jr., a senior adviser to Trump’s campaign. There have been many other voices in the Republican Party blaming Democrats for the attempted attack. “The radical left has continued to label Republicans and Americans who simply want a safe and prosperous country as ‘threats to democracy.’ This irresponsible rhetoric is hurting people,” tweeted Anna Paulina Luna, a congresswoman from Florida.

“This rhetoric against President Trump, this narrative that he will be the next dictator, that he is the next Hitler coming, it has got to stop. Enough is enough,” Florida Rep. Mike Waltz told Fox News on Sunday. “And when you have this narrative coming from the left, from [the] media, from elected officials, even, that Trump has to be stopped by any means necessary, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that these people are being radicalized and taking action like this,” he added. Meanwhile, the richest man in the world, the tycoon Elon Musk, a Trump ally who routinely spreads hoaxes, has wondered on his social platform why no one is trying to assassinate Biden or Harris. He later deleted the message.

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