A progressive Muslim or an Israel-backed moderate? Democrats wage a pivotal battle in Michigan over their future

The two souls of the Democratic Party face a make-or-break test this Tuesday. The primaries to choose the party’s Senate nominee in Michigan have become a kind of thermometer for how hot the party’s left wing has become — a wing that has already scored major victories in cities such as New York and Denver and now seeks a victory in a swing state.

The two opposing candidates could not be more different. On one side is Abdul El-Sayed, a physician, son of Egyptian immigrants, a Muslim, with progressive credentials including a push for universal free healthcare and sharp criticism of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government in Israel. On the other is Representative Haley Stevens, a centrist figure backed by leading figures of the Democratic mainstream and by the powerful pro-Israel lobby.

If El-Sayed wins, as polls cautiously suggest, progressives could hold up their narrative that their movement is not confined to big cities and that they are ready to compete for major offices anywhere in the country.

The two factions vying to take control of the Democratic Party have shown their cards in this contest. El-Sayed enjoys enthusiastic support from two of the left’s biggest stars, Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who is weighing a possible 2028 presidential bid. A strong showing in Michigan could help her decide. On the other side, Representative Stevens has been backed by popular figures such as Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

Michigan’s campaign has been one of the most expensive on record. The pro-Israel lobby has set a single-state record by spending about $30 million. But those funds — used in ads praising Stevens and attacking her opponent — may have a downside, because the role of money in the campaign has become a contentious issue in itself. El-Sayed and his supporters insist on the need to regulate the influence of all those millions of obscure origin in electoral processes.

Abolish ICE

“If you believe, as I do, that instead of spending money on an out-of-control agency like ICE we should abolish it and provide healthcare for everyone; if you believe that instead of funding a genocide carried out by a foreign government it would be better to build schools, then let’s win these primaries on Tuesday,” El-Sayed recently urged his supporters.

“I know things are tough right now and that Washington is a complete mess. Some people just want to yell about it. I’m fighting to fix it,” Stevens said in a video on X. She has run this campaign on her experience as a legislator and, above all, by presenting herself as an everyday Michigander. One of the weeks’ biggest controversies was sparked by a video in which she spoke with what some considered a forced Midwestern accent, as if to claim she was a native while others were not. The controversy prompted as much laughter as support for the candidate.

Anyone who follows U.S. presidential elections knows Michigan is one of the states to watch most closely. With more than 10 million residents, it is the country’s tenth-most populous state. It is not solidly red or blue. In 2024, Donald Trump won there by only about 80,000 votes (he received 49.7% to Kamala Harris’s 48.3%). That is one reason this race is interesting: nothing is foreordained. It is not New York, where the primary winner often has the seat all but guaranteed because they run in an overwhelmingly Democratic district. In Michigan, if El-Sayed wins, it remains to be seen what effect a Muslim candidate, son of immigrants, running a distinctly left-wing campaign will have. If he were to win in the midterms as well, he would be the first senator of the Islamic faith in U.S. history.

This race is also important because Democrats must hold this seat if they hope to take the Senate from the Republicans. El-Sayed and Stevens are competing for the seat being vacated by Democrat Gary Peters. In other words, it is a position the anti-Trump opposition must keep at all costs to capture the upper chamber in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3.

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