Migrants seeking to reach the US before Trump takes office run up against Biden’s closed border
Arrivals are slowly increasing with an uptick in immigrant caravans, but current immigration policy means that their hopes of being able to legally enter the country are slim
The name of the president-elect hangs over two borders. As a succession of migrant caravans begin their journey north from southern Mexico, at the U.S. border it is already possible to detect the first signs of a wave of migrants desperately trying to reach American soil before Donald Trump foreseeably implements his plans on immigration, which are a priority for him as he has said time and again. Two weeks after the Republican’s election victory, the flow of migrants remains low, as it has been since Joe Biden signed a decree in early summer that dramatically limited entry. But in recent days, the arrests of groups of more than a hundred people at the border point to a change of trend in the final months of the Democratic Administration — which has been preparing for it.
In Eagle Pass, Texas, which has been at the epicenter of the recent migrant crisis, 154 undocumented immigrants were detained on Sunday, according to the Texas Department of Public Safety (DPS). The group included 20 unaccompanied minors and six people from Afghanistan. On Monday, in San Miguel, Arizona, Border Patrol detained more than 230 undocumented people. In both cases, the groups were said to be safe and being processed. This, under current regulations that have effectively suspended asylum applications and also allow for immediate returns of migrants who cross outside official access points, means that most of these people will likely be deported, if they have not already been. While the outlook under the new Trump administration is for a complete border closure, the reality is that at this point, it is practically already so.
The scenario of a sudden spike in the flow of migrants ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20 has been on the agenda of immigration authorities since even before the election, however. NBC News reported that the day before the election, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas had met with his top advisers and the heads of Customs Enforcement (CBP) and Immigration (ICE) to discuss and prepare for what a possible Trump victory would mean for the border.
According to the anonymous sources cited by the news outlet, the issues discussed were whether there was the capacity to deal with an increase in the number of migrants trying to enter the country irregularly, specifically whether there was enough space in temporary detention centers to house potentially thousands of people before deportation. And, along the same lines, whether rapid processing and expulsion would be maintained or whether, on the contrary, without a roof to house larger numbers of migrants, there would be a return to the policy of releasing them in U.S. territory to await their court date, a practice highly criticized by the right.
Although the conclusions reached at that meeting are not publicly known, nor whether there have been any new ones in recent days, a CBP spokesperson was blunt: “The fact remains: the United States continues to enforce immigration law, and those without a legal basis to remain will be removed.”
The latest available data on migrant arrivals, for September, was the lowest since Biden took office. There were just over 100,000 encounters at the southern border during the month, just over half of them outside border posts. This is about 7% fewer than in August, and 170% fewer than September of the previous year. Mexico’s role in intercepting migrants before they reach the border has been key to this drop.
These trends have been occurring month after month since President Biden signed his executive order, but he also accelerated deportations. From June 5 until now, according to CBP data, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has tripled the percentage of foreigners processed for “expedited removal,” and the number of people released by Border Patrol pending immigration court proceedings has dropped by 80%. As a result, DHS has expelled or returned more than 160,000 people to more than 145 countries in that period, not including CBP repatriations at airports or on the northern border.
For the entire fiscal year 2024, which runs from October 2023 through the end of September 2024, preliminary data show the United States completed more than 700,000 deportations, more than in any previous fiscal year since 2010. This includes more removals to countries other than Mexico than in any previous year. DHS has also more than halved the time it takes to remove individuals who do not have a legal basis to remain in the United States from its historical average. Additionally, the estimated number of migrant absconders—individuals who crossed the border without encountering authorities—has decreased by approximately 60% from FY 2023 to FY 2024.
But this reality remains lax compared to what the imagination throws up when thinking about the border under Trump’s second presidency. After naming three immigration hawks last week to some of the most important positions in this area — Stephen Miller as White House deputy chief of staff for policy, Tom Homan as “border czar,” and Kristi Noem as secretary of Homeland Security — the complete closure of the border seems imminent. On Monday, president-elect Trump assured that he would declare a national emergency, which would allow him to deploy the army for immigration work, and he has also promised mass deportations, the end of humanitarian parole programs and a significant increase in beds to temporarily house detained migrants, even using or expanding prisons.
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