Why it’s a good idea to make New Year’s resolutions, even if most of them fail

When you want to embark on a difficult project, such as quitting smoking or starting to run three times a week, it’s natural to wonder whether it’s really worth it. For excuses or motivation, some look to science as a source of certainty, and can find support for almost any decision. Studies about keeping New Year’s resolutions suggest that, in the long term, most fail. A classic paper on the subject from 1989 estimated that 77% kept their resolutions for a week, 55% for a month, and 40% made it to half a year. After two years of follow-up, only 19% had stuck to it. More recent data on weight-loss attempts may seem even more discouraging. In the long term, only 5 to 10% manage to maintain their initial reduction, a success rate similar to that of smokers trying to quit.

Despite these data, there are strategies that improve the chances of success (some of which will be explained below) and science has also studied other facets of good intentions that highlight their value, even if they do not produce tangible results, and which partly explain the success of Christmas. At this time, Christians celebrate that God sent his son to the world to redeem humans and offer the hope of an eternal kingdom of justice and peace. In Spain, on December 22, millions of people play the lottery with the more humble hope of escaping poverty. For non-believers or those who know mathematics, these beliefs may seem absurd, but those who bet on the illusion will also find support in science.

Although an accurate perception of reality was considered for years to be a basis for mental health, studies in the 1980s began to question this idea. When people’s beliefs are analyzed, almost all of us think that our future will be better than average and that bad things are less likely to happen to us. Time and again, surveys show how people consider that the economic situation of the country is bad, yet their own situation is good, or that sexism in society is rampant, but their own partner is not sexist. This has led to the belief that positive illusions are a trait encouraged by evolution, because of their protective effect on mental health. In fact, people who assessed the future most accurately were those who suffered from mild depression or low self-esteem. That is why adopting New Year’s resolutions, although they are not entirely realistic and nearly always end in failure, has a positive value, and it is not a good idea to try too hard to repress the optimism that drives them.

Once you have made the decision to change, psychologists offer some fairly simple advice. One of them has to do with setting the challenge. Success is significantly greater if you set approach goals, which focus on what you want to achieve, rather than avoidance goals, which focus on what you want to avoid. In other words: it is better to set the goal of exercising twice a week and eating three pieces of fruit a day than to set the goal of giving up junk food and avoiding a sedentary lifestyle. Instead of focusing on deprivation, try to see the benefits of the effort. Instead of giving up smoking, you can think about improving the taste of your food, or your lung capacity, or saving money.

Another study that looked at what increases the likelihood of success suggests combining more abstract goals that give meaning to our challenge, such as living a healthier life, with more concrete ones, such as lifting weights twice a week. And as a general recommendation, which applies to almost any facet of life, it is key to seek social support, set short-term goals that allow us to see partial progress, and use tools to track that progress. Apps that offer reminders and measure progress can be helpful. In the case of serious health problems related to obesity or smoking, professional help may be necessary. In the case of tobacco, for example, compared to the 5% who remain smoke-free after a year of quitting without any help, with medical assistance in the form of drugs and therapy, the figure can reach 25%.

Although the figures may seem modest, it is not advisable to fall into pessimism because of statistics, which can be useful to have a global image of the world but become a burden as a guide for life. Juan Modolell, a biologist who won Spain’s National Research Award, recalled his reaction when he was diagnosed with stomach cancer at the age of 54. Instead of using his knowledge to find out everything possible about his tumor, he did not read anything at all. “I did not want to investigate, and I was very grateful that no one talked to me about probabilities, because probabilities do not mean anything when you only have one card: they mean something when you play many times, but I only had one card.” After choosing a goal, and making sure that it is your own and not imposed by pressures or outside expectations, the probabilities of success or failure should not be taken into account outside of scientific studies.

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