Bolsonaro defeats Lula in the first round and brings Brazil’s far right closer to power
The senator, son of the former president convicted for plotting a coup, won 47.1% of the vote against 45% for the left-wing incumbent. The two will face off in a runoff on October 25
The ultraconservative wave sweeping across Latin America scored a crucial victory in Brazil on Sunday, one that appears likely to become definitive in three weeks’ time.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, won the first round of the presidential election with 47.1% of the valid votes, compared with 45% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, with 98% of ballots counted, according to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court.
The political heir to the far-right Bolsonaro clan led the vote count from start to finish against Lula, one of Latin America’s most influential politicians of this century, who has governed Brazil for a total of 11 years.
With this result, Bolsonaroism is showing its strength and stands just one step away from returning to power in Latin America’s largest country. The son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019–2022), whom Lula, leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), defeated four years ago, had hoped to settle the contest tonight. However, he fell two percentage points short of surpassing half of the valid votes, that is, excluding blank and spoiled ballots. The two candidates will face each other again in three weeks, on October 25.
In his first statement after the victory, Flávio Bolsonaro stressed that “Brazil wants change” after thanking the 56 million voters who supported him, more than his father received in the first round in 2022. “The end of the PT era is hereby decreed,” he added in Brasília. Bolsonaro did not mention either his father or God.
Shortly afterward, Lula appeared before the press at a hotel in São Paulo. “The result is often unexpected,” he began, recalling the three defeats he suffered at the start of his political career. “Flávio Bolsonaro represents uncertainty,” he warned, going on to criticize “the troubled histories of the Bolsonaros,” their ties to paramilitary militias, and their connection to the Banco Master corruption case.
The PT leader is seeking a fourth term that would crown his political career. But the setback suffered in this first round is shaping up to be devastating for the left, because Lula was already running as the sole progressive candidate and therefore has little room to pick up extra support in the runoff unless he mobilizes abstainers. His rival has the votes of the eliminated right-wing candidates, who together accounted for 7% of the vote, virtually guaranteed. Bolsonaro’s call for strategic voting appears to have worked.
This first-round victory over President Lula represents a major personal triumph for Flávio Bolsonaro, who was widely regarded as a weak candidate and is currently under investigation for corruption.
It is also a victory for the Bolsonaro clan, as it reinforces Bolsonaroism as the dominant force on the Brazilian right. And it is a victory for Jair Bolsonaro himself, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for leading a coup plot aimed at remaining in power after losing the 2022 election to Lula. His eldest son has pledged to pardon him if he wins the presidency.
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