Wave of Russian attacks in Zaporizhzhia raises fears of a larger offensive

The nearly 11-kilometer (6.8-mile) Soborni Avenue that runs through Zaporizhzhia is a testament to the times in this industrial city in southeastern Ukraine. Buildings riddled with holes, a ghost shopping mall, hundreds of shattered windows. This Soviet-era macro-artery bears the fresh traces of constant Russian air strikes with missiles, glider bombs and kamikaze drones. While military experts speculate about a possible offensive on the southern front, some of the remaining residents, anxious about the intensification of attacks, are preparing to leave.

Despite the blow dealt to Russia by the Ukrainian intelligence services on Tuesday with the assassination in Moscow of Lt. General Igor Kirillov, the head of the Russian army’s Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Defense Forces, the Kremlin’s troops are advancing against Ukrainian forces on the battlefield — at high speed in Donetsk — while bombing daily throughout the country. In the Zaporizhzhia region, where Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, occupied by Moscow, is located, almost 2,000 enemy attacks were recorded in the first days of December, with 21 dead and 50 wounded in two strikes against the regional capital.

The latest deadly attack, on December 10 at 3 p.m., hit two medical centers and office buildings less than 100 meters from the Arlex gym, where its owner Artyom Kyreino was training at the time. The shockwave shattered mirrors and windows, further straining the spirits of this father of two girls, aged six and two.

Kyreino is an example of the nervousness and stress that weighs on Zaporizhzhia’s dwindling population. As he recounted on a deserted street in the city last Sunday, he has moved three times since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. When the war began, he and his family lived in the south of the city, on the ninth floor of an apartment block, the top floor of the building. “We were scared because of the shelling.” They soon moved closer to the center. “We lived there until October this year, when Russia attacked next to our house. That same day, we moved to another flat, on the other side [on the western bank] of the Dnipro River.”

The family is already looking for a fourth destination, this time in Kyiv, over 550 kilometers (340 miles) away. “We understand that the front line is getting closer every day. They won’t get there in a day or a week, but I already have a plan,” explains Kyreino. Two months ago he discussed it with his employees. The vast majority, 25 out of 30, would also move with the business to Kyiv.

Zaporizhzhia’s regional governor, Ivan Fedorov, posted on his Telegram channel last weekend that since September 22, the wave of large-scale Russian attacks “has damaged more than 350 blocks of buildings and more than 1,300 private homes” in several districts of the city. In the region, last Saturday alone, Russian troops launched 429 attacks against 19 towns. Fedorov rejects the possibility of an intensification of the offensive on the southern front to take the city, as some analysts have suggested — and others have played down — in recent months. “They have been scaring us since September,” the governor said on Sunday. “All this is part of psychological operations, but it is taking its toll on society,” he acknowledged in statements reported by the press.

Increase in assault operations

Colonel Vladislav Voloshyn, spokesman for the Southern Defence Forces, says that on the southeastern front “the number of Russian assault operations is growing every day,” with up to two or three dozen recorded daily. The number of soldiers and armored vehicles is also “constantly” increasing, along with drones and aircraft to support these assaults in the Vremiev sector, in Zaporizhzhia. “The enemy is increasing its efforts to try to reach the border with the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions,” he tells this newspaper through audio messages.

The spokesman clarifies that this is not a large-scale offensive, “but rather assault operations with small infantry groups” consisting of five to 10 soldiers. “Their task is to gradually and slowly advance in a given direction, gradually capture our lines and consolidate themselves there, and then slowly advance forward, wedging into our defense,” he continues. The same tactic, which worked well for Russia in Soledar, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka, is being prepared to be implemented in sectors of Zaporizhzhia such as Huliaipole and Orikhiv.

Taras Mikhalchuk, deputy battalion commander of Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade, codenamed “Spanish,” recounts the daily attacks, day and night, in Orikhiv, where he is deployed. “The Russians are probing in different places and where they find a weak spot, they go in with everything,” he explains while drinking tea in the kitchen of his barracks, about 15 kilometers (nine miles) from the front line, from where the sound of Russian shelling can be heard.

The Ukrainian army is preparing in this sector with larger numbers of weapons and soldiers, explains Mikhalchuk, who emigrated to Spain in 2005 after a youth in which he fought in three wars, and where his family remains. Fortifications are also being built daily.

Orikhiv, which had almost 14,000 inhabitants before the war, has become a ghost town after the Russian bombing raids that destroyed everything. “Between 200 and 300 people are still there. They have nowhere to go and they don’t want to leave because the government doesn’t help the displaced,” says the deputy commander. There are 3.1 million internally displaced people in the country, according to data from UNHCR, the UN refugee agency. The city of Zaporizhzhia is the main destination for those who have fled the 67% of the region occupied by Russia and who do not want to leave their home region.

Mykola Kolodiazhny, co-founder of two NGOs working with displaced women and children in Zaporizhzhia, explains that the city has experienced several waves of terror and population flight. The first was when the war began: “At first we were all very afraid, but then we got used to it and understood that we had to adapt.” In the autumn of 2022, Russia heavily bombed the city with S-300 missiles. “People became scared again and many left,” he continues. After a few months, some of those who had left returned, as had happened with those who left at the beginning of the war. In 2023 and 2024, the citizens again adapted and got on with their lives.

“Now, in the last few weeks, there has been a major bombardment again and people are once again afraid,” Kolodiazhny explains. The constant air raid warnings, which are often ignored elsewhere in the country, are taken seriously here and when they sound, people seek cover in bomb shelters. Several underground schools are being built in the region and a subterranean operating theater is already up and running.

Speaking about the possibility of a new offensive on the southern front, Kolodiazhny says that the authorities have assured citizens there is nothing to worry about. “But it’s when they tell us that that we get worried,” he says ironically. With the increasing intensity of the bombing, Kolodiazhny believes that people are preparing to leave in advance. “It’s a psychological preparation. It’s very difficult to make the decision to leave, but now we understand that we should not wait for the worst, as happened in Mariupol; it’s better to leave early and be on the safe side,” he says in the room where his organization operates in the Zaporizhzhia regional library on the monumental Soborni Avenue.

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