Chavismo hardens stance as Venezuela’s opposition resolves to assume presidency

Venezuela is preparing for a potential turning point in its political landscape, with a significant date marked on the calendar. Opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia have both emphasized that González will be sworn in as president on January 10, 2025, when the current presidential term ends. “There is an absolute conviction that this will be the case, we are now more convinced than ever,” an opposition source confirmed, though they did not clarify how or under what circumstances González might assume the presidency in the Capitol in Caracas.

The opposition’s firm stance has sparked alarm within Chavismo, which has further hardened its discourse against Machado and González, accusing the two of attempting to orchestrate a coup. In response, the ruling party passed the Bolívar law, which allows authorities to imprison or ban from public office anyone who supports the international sanctions imposed by the United States on Venezuela.

The Biden administration has also fueled the narrative, claiming that Chavismo’s days are numbered. Meanwhile, the appointment of Marco Rubio — a vocal opponent of the Nicolás Maduro government — as the next Secretary of State under Donald Trump has ignited optimism among some sectors of the opposition that Venezuela will soon see a political transition.

The Edmundo González seen in recent weeks presents a stark contrast to the one who went into exile in Spain in early September, seemingly ready to be forgotten. He has since hardened his rhetoric, firmly asserting his intent to assume the presidency, backed by the mandate given to him by the votes he received in the July 28 presidential elections. Opposition electoral observers have gathered thousands of tally sheets, which show González’s overwhelming victory over Maduro. González now says that he will take office, and if not, he is “morally prepared” to face arrest. This statement marks a shift from his usual, more moderate public addresses.

However, the nature of his potential return to Venezuela remains unclear. González fled under intense judicial persecution, and Minister of the Interior and Justice Diosdado Cabello has responded to his defiant stance by displaying on his television program the golden handcuffs that await González should he set foot in Venezuela. “There is not a single possibility that Edmundo González will come to Venezuela to be sworn in,” warned Cabello.

González, the candidate of the Unitary Platform — a coalition of Venezuela’s main opposition parties — has used his time in exile to bolster international support for his cause, seeking recognition as the legitimate president if he assumes office on January 10, 2025. González remains resolute in his demand to “enforce the will of the Venezuelan people” as expressed during the July 28 elections.

In his diplomatic efforts to maintain momentum, Venezuela was recently highlighted as a “regional crisis” at the G-7 summit in Italy, with the group pledging to support efforts for a peaceful transition. González also announced plans for a Latin American tour ahead of his anticipated return to Venezuela. Meanwhile, the United States, the opposition’s most influential ally, has reiterated its stance against Maduro’s government. The Biden administration, which officially does not recognize Maduro’s authority, said last week that it would consider providing assistance for the opposition candidate’s return if requested. A White House official told journalists: “If we were to receive a request from him, we would consider that.”

Arrests

In response to the increasing international pressure and opposition moves, the Maduro government has intensified its crackdown on dissent and freedoms within Venezuela. The release of some individuals arrested during protests against the election results was quickly followed by a new wave of arrests targeting political leaders, business figures, and military personnel allegedly involved in conspiracies. Chavismo perceives threats from all directions.

Last week, the National Assembly approved the controversial Bolívar law, which broadens the scope of persecution against those deemed enemies of the regime. The law imposes harsh penalties, including up to 30 years in prison, political disqualification, multimillion-dollar fines, and charges of crimes against humanity for anyone promoting sanctions or challenging the Chavista authorities. Machado, who claims to be in hiding, is being investigated for treason. On Friday, after passing the law — in response to U.S. Congress plans to impose more sanctions on Venezuela — Maduro again accused the opposition of planning to assassinate him.

Machado, however, remains steadfast, insisting that the time has come for a political transition. “Maduro has to accept a proposal to step down from power, or it will only get worse for him. We will not back down from what is rightfully ours,” she declared last week.

This escalating tension has led to a further clampdown on opposition figures, particularly those sheltered in the Argentine Embassy in Caracas, now under Brazil’s administration. Venezuela’s National Police have increased their presence around the embassy, cutting off electricity and water supplies, while drones have been deployed to monitor the area. Among those seeking refuge are five key political allies of Machado.

Juan Pablo Guanipa, a key opposition leader and close ally of Machado, explains over the phone that the opposition’s current strategy is focused on intensifying internal pressure before January 10, 2025, with the aim of forcing “the bases that support Maduro to give in.” He insists: “What should happen is that Edmundo [González] is sworn in. Everyone knows that he won on July 28 — Maduro knows it, the military knows it, and even Maduro’s supporters know it.”

Guanipa, who himself remains under protection from Chavista persecution, acknowledges the possibility that Maduro could still be sworn in but asserts: “That would not mark the end of this fight.” He continues: “Venezuelans believe in the rule of law, in the supremacy of democracy, and in the separation of powers. These are victories in the face of Chavismo’s attempts to change our way of thinking. Venezuelans are outraged and convinced that political change has to become a reality.”

Other prominent opposition leaders, though less aligned with Machado, share a sense of cautious optimism. In recent weeks, they have reestablished contact with her, even though her exact whereabouts remain unknown.

“We communicate with her, although she doesn’t share everything with us,” says one leader, speaking on condition of anonymity. “She is very determined, very focused, and totally resolved to face what is coming.”

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