Uruguay’s José Mujica steps in to help Broad Front mobilize voters ahead of runoff vote

The presidential and legislative elections held on Sunday in Uruguay established the leftist Broad Front (FA) as the most-voted political force in the country, though the results fell short of leaders’ expectations. As vote counting progressed, the Broad Front won nearly 44% of the ballots, compared to 47% for the center-right coalition that has governed Uruguay since 2020. What’s more, the FA will hold a majority in the Senate, though neither bloc achieved a majority in the House of Representatives, with 99.9% of the precincts counted.

In the upcoming second round, the FA presidential candidate Yamandú Orsi, backed by former president José Mujica, will face off against Álvaro Delgado, the government’s candidate and successor to President Luis Lacalle Pou. President Lacalle Pou, with an approval rating of 50%, remains the uncontested leader of the ruling coalition; however, he cannot run for reelection due to constitutional term limits. Mujica — who at 89 is still the most popular politician in Uruguay — will support the FA campaign from his farm on the outskirts of Montevideo, where he is recuperating from recent treatment for esophageal cancer, according to sources close to him.

“Mujica is a very important asset for the FA, and he has played his part in campaign spots in recent weeks, calling on people to vote for Orsi,” said Mariana Pomiés, director of the consultancy firm Cifra, in an interview with EL PAÍS. “I believe the FA will leverage Mujica’s influence, not so much to attract new voters — since those who need convincing may not be particularly moved by Mujica — but to motivate the base to engage in direct voter outreach, as they did five years ago [when the FA gained 10 points between the first and second rounds]. Mujica is very good at rallying the party’s core supporters.”

According to Pomiés, the main challenge facing both Orsi and Delgado ahead of the November 24 runoff is demonstrating the kind of leadership neither has shown thus far. “They have not shone in the campaign, they have not spoken much to the masses,” she said, adding that neither candidate has yet emerged as a figure capable of truly energizing and mobilizing voters. In November, she noted, they’ll face each other in a legally mandated televised debate. “They’ll need to go out and prove they are leaders for their half [of the electorate], showing the kind of leadership that could make them president,” she concluded.

On Sunday night, the excitement among coalition leaders and their supporters contrasted sharply with the more subdued atmosphere within Broad Front’s ranks. Pomiés suggests that expectations within the FA for a result above 44% may have stemmed from some polls that indicated this possibility, as well as from the “person-to-person” campaigning they relied on. “The results were within the margins forecasted by most polls. Broad Front remains the most-voted party, as it has in recent elections, showing slight gains compared to five years ago. They also secured a Senate majority, which was one of their goals,” she noted.

This year, the FA entered the election season with more optimism than in 2019, having gained momentum from the primary elections on June 30 — which were not mandatory, unlike the presidential and legislative election on Sunday, October 27. In June, the leftist coalition garnered 418,000 votes, a significant increase from its 2019 primary result of nearly 260,000 votes. This support was seen as a promising boost, raising hopes for a decisive first-round victory. Leading figures within the FA discussed the possibility of winning 48%, which would grant the party a majority in both chambers, and some were even optimistic about crossing the 50% threshold necessary for an outright first-round win.

In the primaries, FA candidate Yamandú Orsi, the former mayor of Canelones, won 60% of the vote, defeating Carolina Cosse, the former mayor of Montevideo, who received 36%. Orsi was regarded as the best candidate to connect with and win over rural voters — a demographic historically aligned with the traditional National Party and Colorado Party, which have traditionally been more resistant to the left. Currently, the National Party governs 15 departments, the Broad Front governs three, and the Colorado Party governs one. The two most populous departments, Montevideo and Canelones, remain strongholds for the Uruguayan left.

After their 2019 defeat, the Broad Front leadership launched an initiative called “The Broad Front Listens to You,” involving a broad outreach effort to address what they acknowledged was a disconnect with the public after 15 years in power from 2005 to 2020. Party representatives visited 300 communities and held over 1,400 meetings with various groups, such as neighborhood associations, rural producers, and businesses. “Our Broad Front is once again the most-voted party in Uruguay. We are the party that has grown the most in this election,” Orsi declared to the crowd gathered along Montevideo’s coastal promenade on Sunday.

Compared to the previous election, Broad Front (FA) gained nearly 5 percentage points, rising from 39% to 43.9%. Meanwhile, the National Party’s share decreased from 28.6% to 26.9%, though its coalition partner, the Colorado Party, saw an increase from 12.4% in 2019 to 16.1%. Together with its other coalition allies, Cabildo Abierto (2.4%) and the Independent Party (1.73%), the center-right coalition collectively reached 47%, positioning them advantageously for the November 24 runoff. Nevertheless, the Broad Front appears to have benefited from its extensive grassroots strategy, winning in 12 departments on October 27, while the National Party took six and the Colorado Party one.

“Historically, the coalition’s October votes don’t fully translate into November votes,” Pomiés noted. She explains that some voters choose their party’s candidate in the first round, but may shift their support to the FA in the runoff if they’re not inclined to back the coalition’s final nominee. “In fact, the FA gained nearly 10 points between October and November [in 2019], and these are votes it draws away from the coalition,” she said. This dynamic, she explains, is part of why Orsi emphasized national unity in his speech: it was an effort to attract the coalition’s voters. “He’ll try to fish for voters in the coalition’s waters,” said Pomiés.

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