Violence escalates in Mexico two weeks before Sheinbaum takes office

Search for any Mexican city online and news articles on recent violence will likely come up: kidnappings, murders, missing persons, armed attacks, dismembered bodies, narco-messages, locals fleeing their homes due to shooting... It is the reality of a country about to mark 20 years of violence — a crisis initially linked to drug trafficking that has long since evaded any simplistic explanation. Today, violence in Mexico is due to a multitude of reasons and situations, deeply rooted in the ease of obtaining weapons on the street.

None of Mexico’s last three governments has found a solution to the violence. The administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador — which ends in 15 days when Claudia Sheinbaum takes office — blames the Felipe Calderón government (2006-2012), claiming it was responsible for stirring up the hornet’s nest. The outgoing administration argues that Calderón wanted to use cannon fire to solve a problem that, at the beginning of his government, was not as serious as it is today. In 2007, Mexico reported 8,867 murders, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

The next government, led by Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018), is rarely mentioned by López Obrador, despite the fact that it was in the last two years of his administration that homicidal violence skyrocketed, with Mexico recording more than 30,000 murders — the highest figure since records began. All three presidents — López Obrador, Peña Nieto and Calderón — have tasked the armed forced with solving the crisis, or at the very least, containing the violence. But two decades later, it is difficult to point to significant progress. Unless keeping annual homicides from rising above the 30,000-mark is considered progress.

That’s the current situation. Mexico is on track to record more than 30,000 murders for the eighth consecutive year. It’s a shocking figure, but one that does not seem to have led to any reflection from the government. Over the years, authorities have responded to outbreaks of violence in different regions by temporarily deploying the armed forces. While the soldiers are able to contain the violence, the situation in the country remains unchanged, waiting for the next spark to start a new round of attacks.

Right now, it is Sinaloa that is under attack. The war between the two main factions of the Sinaloa Cartel has struck fear into the Mexican state, particularly in Culiacán, the state capital. On Sunday alone, 14 people were killed in Sinaloa, including five men, who were found tied up, with hats on their heads, next to a water park in southern Culiacán. Amid the violence, the governor of Sinaloa, Rubén Rocha, was forced to cancel Mexico’s Independence Day celebrations in Culiacán, one of the most important holidays of the year.

But there are more hotspots of violence, each one as complex as the last, with criminals thriving thanks to rampant impunity and corruption. Of particular note is the Tierra Caliente region in the state of Michoacán and surrounding regions. From Coahuayana to Buenavista and Tepalcatepec to Apatzingán, Mexicans in Tierra Caliente have not seen a day without violence in the past 10 years. With organized crime controlling the productive industries, local mafias at war for control and self-defense forces also in the mix, the region is constantly on edge, always waiting for the next battle.

Last week, one of Buenavista’s best-known lemon growers, José Luis Aguiñaga, was murdered on his ranch, allegedly at the hands of one of Los Viagras — a veteran criminal group that was accused last year of murdering Hipólito Mora, one of the historic leaders of the Michoacán self-defense forces. Citrus growers responded to Aguiñaga’s murder by announcing they would stop work.

Crime is on the rise and if it has not caused permanent damage to the government it is precisely because it is seemingly permanent. In Mexico, violence no longer comes as a surprise. A crime has to be very serious if it is to grab society’s attention for more than a passing moment. With all eyes on Sinaloa, there is little attention on the violence affecting several regions on the border of the Mexican state of Chiapas and Guatemala — an area subject to the vicissitudes of organized crime, where criminal groups fight to the death to control the routes to traffic migrants, drugs and weapons. Not even 10 days have passed since the disappearance of Aníbal Roblero Castillo, the mayor-elect of Frontera Comalapa, the most important municipality in the area. On Monday, his desperate son called authorities to continue the search. “Don’t stop looking for him,” he said in a video.

Each state in Mexico has its own problems. In Guerrero, for example, the election campaign this year left a bloody trail. In the city of Taxco alone — where authorities recently arrested more than a dozen police officers for corruption — 16 people were victims of attacks during the campaign. It was the city with the highest number of these attacks, followed by Chilpancingo, the capital of Guerrero, with 12. But if it is not the election, it is something else: crime, economy and politics are part of the same universe and, often — out of interest or obligation — they speak the same language.

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