Ukraine’s great silent victory: The reconquest of the Black Sea

Andriy Vadaturskyy, 51, says that one of the worst things about the invasion of Ukraine is waking up and seeing what might have happened while you were sleeping. The uncertainty. On one such night, July 31, 2022, a Russian missile ripped through the bedroom of his parents, Oleksiy and Raisa, ending their lives. The bombardment pounded the southern city of Mykolaiv, facing the Black Sea. Oleksiy Vadaturskyy was the founder of Nubilon, a giant in the agricultural sector, and one of the richest men in the country. The death of the 74-year-old businessman was condemned by the regional government and by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Suspicions were voiced that Russia, with whom he was not on good terms, had deliberately targeted him. Andriy took over the reins of the family emporium at a time when the Russian fleet was blocking trade to the Bosphorus.

“You have to make decisions, but it’s like you’re always jumping into the last car of a train,” Andriy says in the shadow of one of his silos near the town of Voznesensk. With the ports of Odesa and Mykolaiv blocked, he decided to look for an alternative route, even if it was more expensive. And he was right.

If someone wants to damage Ukraine’s economy, there is no better way than to hit the countryside. Before the war, about 70% of the land was arable; now, due to the invasion, the area farmed is one-third smaller than before. Moscow has bombed thousands of hectares, killing farmers; it has launched its missiles against freight elevators and terminals in the southern ports, and has blocked trade and mined the waters of the Black Sea. Acts of war, yes, but also with clear repercussions for the economy. Russia and Ukraine are competitors in the grain market, so damage to one places the other in a better position.

“They wanted to control the corridor,” explains Andriy, a man with hard features and a tanned complexion, sweltering in the summer heat, “and thus be more competitive.” In the summer of 2022, Moscow and Kyiv separately signed an agreement with Turkey, mediated by the United Nations, to ensure the transit of grain to the Bosphorus Strait, vital for many importers in the South. A year later, Moscow abandoned the pact and reinstated the blockade.

It is harvesting time for some crops. The dust raised by the harvesting machines, in an exquisite grid of yellow and green earth, is lost on the banks of the Bog River, on the way to the port of Mykolaiv. Vadaturskyy rides on one of the jewels of his new calling in life, a demining ship in which he has invested €4 million ($4.36m). He has shared many figures with fellow businessmen and journalists: the company lost €460 million in 2022 alone, along with 25,500 hectares that fell into Russian hands; the cost for moving each ton of crops (barley, corn and wheat) then went from €11 to around €140. He says that 24 of his employees have died and 654 went to fight. But he also says that things are improving. Over the last 12 months, they have exported 3.2 million tons and reduced logistics costs to between €57 and €67 euros. And that’s thanks in large part to the route via the Danube River and the Romanian port of Constanta — through an esteemed partnership with Bucharest — in which Nibulon has invested more than €20 million.

Ukraine’s exports, with agricultural products in the forefront — the military occupation of the more industrial strip has crippled metallurgy — currently follow three routes: by truck, to the country’s western border to cross into European Union territory, generally via Poland; again by land, to Ukrainian ports on the Danube River (Reni, Izmail), where they set sail for the Black Sea; and, thirdly, along this same sea, from the unblocked Odesa terminals, tracing a route parallel to the pre-war one — longer and more costly, but safer — through the territorial waters of two NATO countries, Romania and Bulgaria. The ports of Mykolaiv, further east, remain closed for security.

These last two routes have cost time and money, but have allowed for the recovery of exports. The data speak for themselves: according to recent information from Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Kachka, in the season that ended in June, Ukraine managed to export cereals and oilseeds worth €70 million ($76.3m) with corn leading in volume but also a record growth in sunflower oil, of which Ukraine was the pre-war leader in exports. Before the Russian invasion, agricultural sales stood at over €6 million per month; after the breakdown of the grain agreement in the summer of 2023, it was practically no more than €2 million. The resilience, creativity, commitment and investment of the companies have been essential, but the turning point for the reconquest of Black Sea trade was undoubtedly the expulsion of the Russian fleet.

TransInvestService (TIS) is another giant in Ukraine, a stevedore and operator of the terminals from which cargo ships depart and arrive in the ports of Odesa. Its location, on the westernmost fringe of the Black Sea coast, makes it the starting point of choice for maintaining the trade route to the Bosphorus. Philipp Grushko, 40, a businessman and investor, is a member of the TIS board of directors. “The security situation has improved,” Grushko says in a video call. “During the grain deal checks, which could last up to 40 days per cargo ship, Russia tried to delay the departure of Ukrainian ships for as long as possible.” It was ruinous for the sector and for the country. Even if Moscow had maintained the pact, at that rate the drain on exports would have continued.

The Ukrainian Navy, despite not possessing a formidable fleet, stepped up its campaign after the summer of 2023. Through a combined strategy of conventional attacks with missiles, sabotage, and the use of marine drones, Kyiv has managed to drive the Russian fleet out of the Black Sea almost entirely. “It now dominates the waters,” notes Grushko. “Russia has learned that the price of attacking ships is very high.” Like Vadaturskyy, this businessman insists on the importance of Ukraine investing more in its naval force to ensure the safety of Black Sea shipping.

On July 15, the Ukrainian navy spokesman reported that the last patrol ship of the Russian fleet stationed in Crimea, based in Sevastopol, had left the area. According to Kyiv, its offensive has succeeded in destroying or damaging a third of Moscow’s vessels in the Black Sea. The British Ministry of Defense places the figure at one-fifth of the warships deployed in these waters.

From the other side of the trench, however, Russian artillery continues to target the southern region, from Mykolaiv to Odesa and the Danube ports. While Vadaturskyy is showing the silos where he stores the grain, the anti-aircraft sirens sound. An instant after the last door of the bomb shelters closes, with the personnel safely inside, an explosion is heard in Voznesensk. A Russian missile has hit a civilian area of the town, causing one fatality.

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