Those who will leave Venezuela if Chavismo wins the election: ‘I’ll start selling my things’

For years, Venezuelans’ migration plans have been determined by electoral cycles. After 25 years of Chavismo, they have become part of daily conversation each time an election nears, as one will on July 28. You can hear such exchanges in the street, constantly, and they’re not just talk: various polls indicate that around a quarter of the Venezuela’s population — between 18% and 22% — plan to leave the country this year. Of this group, the majority will base their decision on the result of Sunday’s election, saying they will emigrate if President Nicolás Maduro is elected for a third term.

At 55 years old, María Auxiliadora Fernández says that she has thought about following her sister to Spain, where both have citizenship, if there is no change in government. “Many people are thinking about leaving this time if there is no change,” says the graphic designer, who has signed on to be an election monitor for Edmundo González Urrutia’s campaign. “Although there may be an outcome on the 28th in which they say they won, that may change. There are many things that will be very difficult for Maduro if he does that, anything can happen. I wouldn’t leave immediately, but I would start selling my things and get everything ready in order to go,” she says.

Engilberth Jiménez thinks that even if the opposition wins, the situation won’t improve enough in the short term. “For this country to change, there needs to be a restructuring of everything that has been devalued. We’re not talking about months, it will be at least a year,” he says. He has decided to go to the United States, where some of his friends have already headed. The dangers of crossing the perilous Darién Gap seem like a necessary sacrifice in exchange for better opportunities. He is 26 years old, self-employed as a merchant and, on the phone from Barquisimeto in the central western region of the country, he says he can no longer postpone his life plans. “Here, I can have a job and make money, but you’re living day to day. You can’t get the things you dream of quickly.”

The waves of Venezuelan migrants who travel through the Darién Gap to get to the United States have not ceased, but they have slowed. In the first five months of 2024, 170,000 people traversed the jungle crossing between Colombia and Panama, the majority of them Venezuelans who have already passed through the region’s other countries, where they were unable to establish themselves. That number is 2% higher than last year’s. The United States has made its entry requirements more stringent. Panama has also announced deportations and the fencing-off of trails and jungle paths under the new government of José Raúl Mulino, who took office this month. The rainy season threatens access to other routes. When the numbers of Venezuelan migrants began to grow between 2014 and 2018, the worst years of the country’s economic crisis, nations like Chile, Peru and Ecuador implemented migrant and refugee policies in solidarity with the Venezuelans. Today, those countries require visas and have increased security at their borders. However, with more than seven million Venezuelans now living abroad — according to the World Bank, the country’s estimated remaining population in 2022 was 28.3 million — those who have stayed can count on more extensive networks in other nations, should they make the decision to emigrate.

Changes in movement

Since last year, certain shifts have taken place when it comes to the paths of the migrants. The Survey on Living Conditions for the Venezuelan, which was carried out by the Andrés Bello Catholic University, reported that there are less Venezuelans living in Colombia and Peru and that there has been an increase in the numbers of those living in the United States and Spain. Chile now receives the third-highest number of Venezuelan migrants. The number of women who are emigrating to reunite with their families is on the rise, which could indicate a higher degree of stability for Venezuelan emigrants in different places. Migrants are also getting older: nearly half of them are between 30 and 49 years old.

Chavismo has frequently denied the existence of the migratory phenomenon, which has become an indicator of the Venezuelan government’s poor management. For years, Venezuelan consulates have made it difficult for citizens to access their identifying documents and on July 28, of the estimated 3.5 million Venezuelans overseas who are eligible to vote in the election, only 69,000 will be able to do so, a number consisting of those who were able to sign up during the short, difficult-to-access periods in which electoral rolls were updated. Last month, Maduro announced the creation of a vice-ministry for Venezuelan migration affairs and, at his rallies, called for emigrants to return to the country. Opposition forces have also campaigned on the promise that, should they come to power, they will provide the correct conditions so that those who have left can come home.

The issue, of course, has figured largely in the negotiations taking place between Caracas and Washington D.C. At the end of last year, after signing the Barbados agreement, the petroleum licenses granted by the United States were accompanied by the resumption of migrant deportation flights from the country to Venezuela. The talks resulted in sanctions relief for Maduro and border pressure relief for Joe Biden.

Months later, the United States revoked those licenses after Maduro’s government decided to invalidate the presidential candidacy of opposition leader María Corina Machado. Venezuela refused to authorize the arrival of more deportation flights. The United States’ next presidential elections in November, which Republican Donald Trump is favored to win, could also have an impact on what happens regarding migratory policy and negotiations with the South American country.

“For Venezuela, which has already lost 25% of its population, primarily among individuals of working age, higher emigration rates could be detrimental,” warns María Gabriela Trompetero, lecturer and researcher of migration issues at Germany’s Bielefeld University. “The loss of workforce and demographics, together with the separation of families, is already having serious consequences for the country when it comes to economic, psychosocial and social cohesion issues. These problems would increase in the context of a new exodus driven by a Maduro victory. That would generate a series of complex and multifaceted problems, both for Venezuela and other countries of the region,” she notes. For many Venezuelans, the decision of whether or not to leave their home country will also be on the table this Sunday.

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