Latest voter intention poll shows PP winning election, Socialists second
Ciudadanos consolidates its third position while Podemos continues to lose traction
With 45 days to go before Spain holds general elections, a new voting intention poll shows that the incumbent Popular Party (PP) would win with 29.1 percent of the vote, while the main opposition Socialist Party (PSOE) would secure 25.3 percent.
On Thursday, the government-funded Center for Sociology Research (CIS) released its October survey, which asked Spaniards about their views on government and politicians, their most pressing problems, and who they plan to vote for on December 20.
Spain’s four major parties have been swapping places in the polls over the last year
According to this latest poll, emerging parties Ciudadanos and Podemos would come in third and fourth, respectively, with 14.7 percent and 10.8 percent of the vote.
The survey shows improving figures for the PP, PSOE and Ciudadanos from the previous CIS poll of July, but sagging ones for left-wing anti-austerity group Podemos.
These figures reflect the estimated vote (see sidebar below). Direct vote results show Podemos dropping to a historical low of 8.8 percent after peaking early this year at 24 percent, while the PP and Socialists also experience declines. Only Ciudadanos sees a rise in direct voting intention.
Spain’s four major parties have been swapping places in the polls over the last year. The latest survey by polling firm Metroscopia shows Ciudadanos ahead of the Socialists in voting intention, though not in parliamentary seats due to the Spanish voting system.
English version by Susana Urra.
What is the difference between direct vote and estimated vote?
The CIS obtains its “direct vote” results from asking respondents the following question: “Supposing general elections were held tomorrow, what party would you vote for?”
Although this would appear to leave very little margin for error, researchers note that this method does not accurately forecast actual results at general elections, because a significant percentage of people reply “Undecided/No answer.”
That is the reason why CIS puts these figures through an estimation model that also takes into account who respondents voted for in previous elections and their opinion on political leaders and the current situation. This “estimated vote” is the main indicator used to predict election outcomes.
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