According to a Metroscopia poll for EL PAÍS, the governing Popular Party would obtain 30.8 percent of the vote if a general election were to be held now. The figure is down 1.8 percentage points in just a month, and nearly 14 points since its massive November 2011 victory. Its main opposition, the Socialist Party, has also lost 1.8 points and would get 31.7 percent support in hypothetical elections. The error margin, however, means both parties are in a technical tie.
The main reason for the PP's decline is the lack of economic improvement after more than two years in power, as many people voted for Mariano Rajoy in the hope that he would solve the crisis. Another determining factor is the recent raft of restrictive initiatives, such as abortion reform and citizen security laws.
What the survey shows most clearly is the decline of two-party rule in Spain and the rise of third parties, most importantly Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) and the United Left, both of which would double their 2011 results in a vote today.