Unacceptable escalation

The air defense zone established by Beijing in the East China Sea (which obliges all planes to inform the Chinese beforehand of their flight plans and to obey instructions) amounts to a calibrated and dangerous escalation in its dispute with Japan over the sovereignty of a handful of uninhabited islands. The measure puts to the test the degree of American commitment to its Japanese ally and questions US domination of the western Pacific, which Beijing is not prepared to go on considering an American ocean.

China is calling this enlargement of its strategic air space a purely defensive move, not directed against anyone. But these arguments are scarcely compatible with the abrupt and unilateral character of the decision, or with the fact that a part of this air space overlaps that of Japanese sovereignty, which has been in effect for many years. The conditions, then, are ripe for incidents, fortuitous or deliberate, and of unpredictable consequences.

The islets claimed by China, in and around which there are supposed to be reserves of oil and gas, have been administered by Tokyo since the end of the 19th century, and Beijing would be unlikely to obtain international arbitration in its favor, were it to consider that route.

The growing tension in the zone converted the US vice president’s initially trade-oriented recent visit to Beijing into an urgent mission. Joe Biden previously reaffirmed in Tokyo his country’s commitment to the defense of Japan, in accordance with their security pact, but he has not demanded the withdrawal of China. Washington, which on November 26 defiantly overflew the disputed area with two B-52s, has since instructed its airlines to respect the new rules of Beijing, something that Japan and South Korea do not do. Obama cannot openly confront the great emerging power; nor can he back up his defiant gesture without sending out a new and dangerous signal of weakness to his regional allies. President Xi Jinping’s decision to alter the status quo is a grave and irresponsible one, owing to the huge potential for conflict inherent in two conceptions of power as openly nationalist as those of China and Japan.

It is highly unlikely that Beijing will withdraw its new air security perimeter, but the Chinese authorities have to do something to reduce the tension, otherwise their expansionism may well lead to a major crisis.