Pessimism on the economy persists, poll reveals

Just three months after the general elections that ousted the Socialists from power and propelled the Popular Party (PP) to office, Spaniards are no less pessimistic about the state of the nation.

Although the conservatives won on the promise of turning the country around, a Metroscopia opinion poll, carried out for EL PAÍS on February 29 and March 1, shows that 72 percent of citizens still consider the political outlook to be bad, while on the economic front 96 percent of the country feels that things are downright dismal.

Fewer than 100 days into Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s term in office, and the effect of the government’s labor reforms on his popularity levels is already being felt. In just one month, the percentage of Spaniards who say they disapprove of Rajoy and his measures went up 11 points to 51 percent, while 53 percent now give the PP government an overall failing grade.

However, there is a sharp division between Socialist and PP voters on these issues. For instance, just 10 percent of PP voters have a negative view of the government, compared to 92 percent of Socialist voters. Because of its own voters’ unflagging support, if general elections were held now the PP would in fact improve its results from 44.6 percent of the vote on November 20 to a hypothetical 46.3 percent. This bodes particularly well for the regional elections scheduled for March 25 in Asturias and Andalusia, both of which are expected to go to the conservatives.

Rubalcaba: Not trusted

Yet while PP supporters close ranks around their leader, the same cannot be said for Socialist sympathizers. The poll shows that opposition leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and the party he represents have not yet shed the weight of their time at the helm (Rubalcaba was deputy prime minister when the first austerity measures were enacted). Seventy-five percent of respondents said they did not trust Rubalcaba, eight points higher than a month ago.

If elections were to be held now, the Socialist Party would obtain 24.4 percent of the vote, a 4.3-point drop from the November 20 results. The lost votes would go instead to the United Left and the middle-of-the-road UPyD. The poll shows that the two-party system is losing ground in favor of a broader political spectrum, but that the cost of it is being borne exclusively by the Socialists, not the PP.