Latin America keeps a watchful eye on Spain's incoming government

Latin American leaders are paying close attention to see what changes, if any, Spain's new government will make regarding its policy toward Cuba.

The Communist island's relations with Madrid and the rest of the European Union have been an important focus of bilateral relations, and Latin American presidents know that a conservative Popular Party (PP) government won't be so keen to try to foment a friendly approach toward the Castro regime.

During the past two decades, the majority of Latin American nations have been governed by left-leaning presidents, who have identified themselves more closely with Spain's Socialist Party. All of them recall the hardline position the past PP government of José María Aznar took with respect to Cuba, when the prime minister successfully campaigned at the EU level to cool relations with Havana.

The PP has also not done much to improve its own image in certain countries. After President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner won her first term in 2007 ? taking over the Casa Rosada from her husband Néstor Kirchner ? Spain's conservatives were very vocal in their opposition to the idea of keeping the Argentinean presidency "within the family."

Nevertheless, even though Mariano Rajoy and Fernández de Kirchner are on opposite ends of the political spectrum, bilateral relations between Spain and Argentina are not thought to be in jeopardy should the PP leader win the race on Sunday ? just in the same way Chilean-Spanish relations didn't suffer when conservative Sebastán Piñera was elected two years ago. Buenos Aires never cared for Colombia's former President Álvaro Uribe, but now has a wonderful relationship with his predecessor, Juan Manuel Santos, who is also a conservative.

Spain's relations with Brazil should the PP win are also expected to remain on an excellent level. The Socialists have always had more historic ties and contact with the Social Democratic Party of former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso, than the Brazilian Workers Party (PT), which is the governing party of President Dilma Rousseff.

Venezuela could be a different matter. But given that Venezuelans are caught up with their internal problems, such as high crime and inflation, as well as with the illness of their president, Hugo Chávez, who is undergoing cancer treatment, they are unlikely to be overly concerned about a change to a conservative government in Spain.

The majority of Latin American governments are paying close attention to the economic crisis unfolding in Spain, which could have political as well as financial repercussions for them. Between 1990-2010, Spanish business deals flourished in the region, transforming Spain into the second-largest investor in the region, after the United States.

Many Spanish companies now see their Latin American affiliates as being essential to their survival. For example, more than 35 percent of Banco Santander's operations are located in Brazil and more than 50 percent of BBVA's holdings are located throughout the region. Repsol's Argentinean affiliate, YPF, is responsible for 40 percent of the oil giant's profits.

Managers at some of Spain's transnational companies say they want the new government to keep these figures in mind, as well as the importance of the investments already made in Latin America because, as they say, it is not about the region but rather helping the Spanish economy to grow.