Prepared scripts, parallel arguments

The only electoral debate that will be held in the campaign before the general elections on November 20 was not a real debate. The demands of the Popular Party (PP) and the Socialists concerning the matters to be discussed by their candidates, and the time they might take, as well as the staging, had a cramping effect on any fluid exchange of arguments that might have affected the vote. As on previous occasions, Monday night's encounter was not so much a debate, as a calculated performance at which the two major parties allowed a journalist to be present. In the future we may well ask what meaning there can be in a set of rules that serve the propaganda purposes of the parties, and not the media's duty to inform.

Thus corseted by the format previously agreed upon by their campaign staffs, both candidates stuck to their previously prepared scripts. With the opinion surveys heavily against him, the Socialist candidate necessarily tiptoed over his responsibilities in the outgoing government, and concentrated on his adversary's weakest point: his stubborn refusal to define his program. Just the opposite of Rajoy's aim, which was to underline Rubalcaba having belonged to a government which, he said, had deepened the internal effects of the international economic crisis. Having been framed in these terms, the face-to-face meeting was doomed to take the form of two twin series of parallel arguments, interrupted only on the Socialist candidate's initiative.

Rubalcaba had little margin for maneuver, but managed to make good use of it. He took good care to contrast the concreteness of his proposals against the vagueness of Rajoy, who was more concerned not to alienate any sector of his heterogeneous electorate, nor to commit himself excessively, with an eye to the moment when, if the polls are to be trusted, he will have to form a government.

The Socialist candidate succeeded in highlighting both these limitations of Rajoy, though it remains to be seen whether his evident success will have any repercussion on an electorate that was already familiar with them and, in spite of everything, so far inclines toward the PP. On his part Rajoy sought, and certainly managed, to hold on to the advantageous electoral position with which he started. The greatest risk he ran was not that of losing votes to Rubalcaba, but of mobilizing potential Socialist voters apprehensive of the hard-line right, and to this end he put on his most reasonable, easy-to-deal-with face.

In the light of previous experiences, these personal face-offs will have little effect on the electorate's final decision. But they may perhaps score some points in terms not of the electoral result, but of the Socialist Party's future in opposition. The objective of obtaining a number of seats sufficient to run for the secretary-generalship of the PSOE after the elections is still an attainable one for Rubalcaba. But the campaign has only begun, and the internal struggle in the Socialist Party has been set aside for now.