Berlusconi takes a beating

In order to certify whether or not the definitive political decline of Silvio Berlusconi is upon us- a decline that has been predicted for years now, but is yet to come to pass- we will have to wait until the second round of Italian municipal elections, in 10 days. Those results, in particular in Milan, and the response to the new situation of Berlusconi's ally, Umberto Bossi, the head of the Northern League, upon whom the prime minister depends in parliament, will set the immediate agenda for Italian politics.

The head of the government has suffered in the first round of the voting, which took place in 1,300 towns and 11 provinces. This represents a serious setback that deflates the aura of invincibility that has surrounded him since 1994. The defeat of the magnate and his partners in the Northern League hurts more than anywhere in Milan, which is his city and political and media fiefdom. The opposition candidate, with a comfortable win over the mayor of the governing party, has forced a second round that could see a leftist in government in the country's financial capital for the first time in 20 years.

Berlusconi's drubbing is even more important given that the prime minister, unusually quiet after the results, had made the voting a plebiscite about his persona and politics. The Italians, confirming the fall in favor of the head of the government that all of the polls were pointing to, have taken out their anger on an erratic leader, who is lacking respect and is constantly in the courts, where he is facing cases of sexual offences and abuse of power, not to mention several other charges of corruption and tax fraud.

Criticizing the PM

The provisional outcome of the municipal elections has increased the tension in the governing People of Freedom party and its ally, the League, many of whose members consider Berlusconi and his scandals to be responsible for the bad results- less than 10 percent of the vote in cities such as Turin and Milan. Bossi does not skimp on his criticism of the prime minister- most recently for not having been consulted about Italy's participation in the allied air attacks against Gaddafi- but he has stayed loyal to the coalition, knowing that only the survival of Berlusconi can achieve the approval by the government of a greater regional control of taxes, one of the key objectives of the League.

It is yet to be seen whether that attitude will hold after May 30.