Trump’s immigration policy dethrones Mexico’s Modelo Especial as the most popular beer in the United States

An American beer has once again become the best-selling in the United States. Michelob Ultra, a light version of the century-old Michelob, has overtaken the Mexican beer Modelo Especial in the rankings. The brand attributes this to selling a “superior” product, as well as the “active and social” lifestyle it promotes — like the NBA, the famous basketball league they sponsor. However, the Mexican brand has been suggesting for months that the drop in its sales is due to immigrants’ fear of even going out for a drink because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deportation policies.

According to data from market analyst Circana, Michelob Ultra surpassed Modelo Especial in sales volume at bars, restaurants, and other retail outlets, but Modelo still leads in revenue. Each case of Modelo costs about $7 more than a case of Michelob Ultra, so one brand leads in volume (units sold) and the other in income. In other words, customers buy more Michelob Ultra, but spend more on Modelo. This shows that the Mexican brand has not lost popularity due to taste or marketing. In fact, according to William Newlands, CEO of Constellation Brands — the U.S. company that distributes Modelo —t he real issue is that nearly half of Modelo’s consumers are Hispanic, a group that is avoiding going out for fear of encountering Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Newlands mentioned the situation as early as last April. “A lot of consumers in the Hispanic community are concerned right now,” he said. “Social gatherings, an area where the Hispanic consumer often consumes beer, are declining today as part of these overarching concerns that they have.”

According to Newlands, barbecues, birthdays, neighborhood soccer games — occasions where a Modelo would traditionally be opened — have decreased, and consequently Constellation’s beer sales fell 1% last quarter. Newlands also explained that many Latino consumers have changed their consumption patterns. Market studies confirm this: Latino purchases at supermarkets fell 11.3% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the previous year. Visits to pharmacies dropped 7.5%, and trips to convenience stores declined 9.7%.

Modelo had built its success in the United States by connecting with the Latino community, positioning itself as a premium imported beer from Mexico and a symbol of cultural identity. Its growth had been steady over the past decade, as it benefited from the rising purchasing power of Hispanics and their preference for brands that represented them. In June 2023, Modelo surpassed Bud Light for the first time to become the country’s best-selling beer. Now, however, the beverage that for years symbolized Mexican pride has become a collateral victim of White House policies.

Other companies have reported similar effects. Burlington, Foot Locker, Colgate-Palmolive, and Monster all admitted to lower sales among Hispanic consumers. “There obviously is an impact on Hispanic demand, as we’ve seen, lower traffic from Hispanic consumers,” John Faucher, vice president of Colgate-Palmolive, said in March.

Meanwhile, Michelob Ultra has taken the lead by targeting a different segment of the population. Its market consists of young professionals, mostly white, who do not share the immigration concerns faced by the Hispanic community. Additionally, its messaging of an active and social lifestyle contrasts now more than ever with the day-to-day life in immigrant neighborhoods, marked by anxiety about staying under the radar of authorities.

Michelob Ultra also surpassed Bud Light in June 2023, becoming the second best-selling beer in the U.S., just behind Modelo. It has now held the top spot for more than 50 weeks.

Kyle Norrington, chief commercial officer at Anheuser-Busch, the brand’s owner, said: “The brand’s playbook has been simple and relentless: invest, learn and execute as the Official Beer Sponsor of America’s most prominent sports and active-lifestyle moments.” He also announced that the beer will sponsor the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. “This approach has turned Michelob ULTRA into an absolute rocket ship [...] and speaks to the resilience of the American beer category,” he said.

Constellation, meanwhile, projected a decline in net beer sales of between 2% and 4% for the next year.

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