Colombia seeks a way to break its commercial dependence on the United States

The brief diplomatic crisis between the United States and Colombia last weekend exposed the South American country’s deep dependence on its northern partner. Donald Trump’s threat to raise tariffs by 25% on Colombian products would have affected one in three foreign sales made by Colombia each year. Now the emergency is over, this scenario has created an opportunity for the government led by Gustavo Petro to diversify export destinations, with China and Europe as the main focuses, according to experts. Even so, they say, there are several obstacles to overcome, such as the historical lack of interest or Colombia’s antiquated customs processes.

“Colombia has to diversify its exports more and more to feed the world. Sell to all the countries we can: not depend on any one,” Petro told his new Finance Minister, Diego Guevara, during the latter’s inauguration ceremony on Wednesday. The Colombian government this week has experienced first-hand Trump’s volatility, which can endanger the stability of the national economy as the U.S. is its main commercial partner and primary destination for exports of a wide variety of products including flowers, coffee, fruits and vegetables, and oil.

Javier Díaz, president of the National Association of Foreign Trade (Analdex), agrees on the urgency of expanding the market, but not at the expense of the relationship with Washington. “The United States is and will continue to be an ally for Colombia. We cannot see it as an enemy state and it is this perception that leads to scenarios like the one on Sunday,” he argues, referring to the dispute between Petro and Trump over the treatment of deported migrants, which almost led to a trade war.

Getting out of Washington’s trade orbit is not an easy task and there will need to be a joint effort between the government and the private sector, admits Díaz. The monthly reports of the National Administrative Department of Statistics of Colombia (Dane) show that, although the United States remains the country’s main export and import partner, the commercial relationship with other nations such as Panama, India, and China has been strengthened.

It is precisely China, Washington’s main geopolitical rival, that is the focus now. Minister of Commerce Luis Carlos Reyes met this week with the Chinese ambassador to Colombia, Zhu Jingyang, with whom he reviewed the “progress of the deepening of trade relations,” he said in a post on X. Through the same platform, the diplomat said that there is “good news on the way.”

The commercial rapprochement between Bogotá and Beijing has intensified in recent years. Last October, Colombia began the process of joining the Belt and Road Initiative, the official name of the New Silk Road, a transnational project with which China seeks to strengthen its commercial ties throughout the world. “A commercial partner of the magnitude of China is very important for the national market,” says Verónica Peláez, an expert in international trade.

The advantages of Colombia joining this global initiative — such as investments in infrastructure — entail great challenges. “We need an efficient payment system that the country does not yet have,” adds Peláez, a former official at the Ministry of Commerce. The customs process is one of the great commercial disadvantages for the country, notes Díaz, who believes that there can be no success in moving into new markets if there is no modernization: “While other countries manage their foreign trade through technology, electronic platforms, big data, and artificial intelligence, we continue to keep accounts on paper.” According to Analdex, 18% of the cost of products corresponds to logistics, well above the 9% of other competitors.

Public and private disinterest

Experts see another challenge: combating the lack of interest, both public and private. “They always lead us to believe that importing is a bad thing. If we don’t understand the importance of foreign trade, it can hardly be developed,” says Díaz, who laments that there is still no national strategy to diversify sales abroad. For the president of Analdex, Colombia can follow the lead of neighboring countries such as Chile, Peru, or Brazil who, although they have China as their largest trading partner, maintain good relations with the United States.

On the private side, Peláez speaks of an unfounded fear on the part of business owners to migrate to other markets. “There is a great lack of knowledge and a perspective that arises from propaganda that aims to undermine Beijing’s reputation. I remember having spoken with a businessman from the banana industry who told me that for them, the American and European markets were enough. ‘We are not interested in anything else,’ he said.”

During his most recent visit to Beijing last October, former foreign minister Luis Gilberto Murillo — who was replaced Wednesday by Laura Sarabia — stated that relations with China are “at their best.” The arrival in recent years of dozens of companies confirms the interest in Colombia, through large-scale projects such as the Bogotá Metro, the largest engineering project in the country at present.

China is not the only interesting player for Colombia, experts say. Relations with India have also been strengthened in recent years, mainly in products such as oil, coal, and gold. The European Union, through its Global Gateway initiative, has the capacity to invest some €7 billion, according to the Ministry of Commerce. The Petro government has also sought to strengthen diplomatic and commercial relations with several African countries, where coffee and agricultural products are exported. The results of all these efforts, in any case, do not bring immediate effects but can take years to consolidate. Breaking with North American dependence, therefore, is not a one-day mission.

“The United States is first, second, third, fourth, and fifth on the list, and then other options are explored. The strategy that I hope the Petro government will promote is that the allies that follow him will manage to climb the positions,” Peláez sums up.

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