Eight months ahead of the election, a new poll confirms Trump’s lead over Biden

The latest poll of voting intentions, released Saturday, confirms Donald Trump’s lead over Joe Biden in a hypothetical matchup at the polls in November, if both candidates are indeed the nominees. Previous polls already anticipated the decline in Biden’s support, but the latest Siena College for The New York Times poll paints a stark picture of the Democratic president’s decreased popularity, the lowest of his entire term. The percentage of voters who openly disapprove of Biden’s leadership today, eight months before the elections, has reached 47%. That is the highest recorded in the Times/Siena polls during Biden’s presidency.

If the November 5 presidential election were held today, 48% of respondents would choose Trump, compared to 43% who would vote for Biden. A considerable 10% remain undecided and will be decisive in the final result. According to the poll released Saturday, only one in four voters believe the country is headed in the right direction, while over twice as many believe Biden’s policies have hurt more than helped them. Despite the economy’s buoyancy, one of the Democrats’ campaign trump cards, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, has given cause for concern this week, with prices rising, especially for fresh food. A majority of respondents believe the economy is not doing well.

Biden’s policy toward Israel and the Gaza war have also detracted from his support: over 100,000 Democratic voters, mostly of Arab origin, as well as young people and progressives, turned their backs on him last Tuesday in the Michigan primary. That wake-up call was not helped by the image of the president the day before when, ice cream in hand, he speculated about the likelihood of an imminent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Although the White House has modulated its rhetoric on Israel with increasing warnings for Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, Biden’s stance at the UN, where he has vetoed three humanitarian ceasefire resolutions, is also taking its toll on his support among more progressive voters.

Biden, 81, is also struggling to overcome doubts about his physical and mental fitness for office: the image of an old man with a poor memory revealed less than a month ago by the prosecutor in the classified documents investigation has politically damaged Biden’s public image. As many Democratic primary voters argue that Biden should not be the nominee in 2024 as say otherwise. The poll offers warning signs of disaffection with the Democratic front-runner among women, Black, and Latino Democratic voters. Those signs have become more than apparent among Arab-American and progressive voters in Michigan. According to the Siena College poll, the strongest opposition to Biden’s leadership is among voters aged under 45.

So far, Trump has best unified his party, even in the midst of the ongoing primaries, in which he is almost 20 points ahead of his opponent, Nikki Haley, and as he faces a legal onslaught in which he is accused of a total of 91 felony charges. He has also been ordered to pay $500 million after being found liable in two civil lawsuits. Trump has consolidated the Republican base: he has the support of 97% of those who voted for him four years ago. By contrast, Biden retains only 83% of his 2020 voters, while 10% say they will now support Trump.

This weekend, the Republican caucuses will be held in Idaho, Missouri and Michigan (partial), and the District of Columbia will hold its primary on Sunday.

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