Xi grants an audience to Trump

From the plane’s boarding stairs, the whole staging of Xi Jinping’s state visit to the United States became a global semiotic challenge. Every gesture and every word by the Chinese president and his host, Donald Trump, were read in terms of the balance of power between the two great superpowers of the 21st century. The conclusions do not reflect well on Trump. The U.S. president waited for Xi on the runway of a military base on Wednesday night, a highly unusual gesture for Washington diplomacy that made it clear from the very beginning that the Chinese leader is not just another foreign head of state, but an actor whose decisions can alter the trajectory of any conflict. It is the kind of reception Trump also reserved for Vladimir Putin in Alaska. The United States has a president who professes admiration for men with absolute power. It is consistent with that inclination that during the state visit, three major U.S. news outlets were barred from the White House at Trump’s whim.

In his first hours in Washington, Xi said he hoped for “sincere cooperation” between the two countries and “healthy” competition. Trump spoke of “a more balanced trade relationship.” Trade has been the main focus of tension between the two countries since China pushed back against Trump’s capricious tariffs and exposed his weakness. The escalation was paused with a truce that expires in November. [Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday it will be extended two more months]. The world does not need another economic shock. Trump’s political survival right now depends on fuel prices, which depend on the situation in Iran, which in large part depends on China’s moves. This weakness is, moreover, self-inflicted.

It is bad news that there appears to be no substantive dialogue on artificial intelligence, where the risks are multiplying. Trump views it as an existential competition and China is not going to take the first step toward regulation. In this race, full of mutual distrust, the United States is the one that gives the impression of fearing China, not the other way around.

There is no agenda a priori on arms control or an international peace architecture. Trump has also weakened the United States’ traditional alliances in the Asia-Pacific, to Xi’s satisfaction. Taiwan no longer features in Washington’s speeches and at any moment could appear on the state dinner menu. The summit thus presents itself as a replay of the one held in Beijing last May: a display of thaw and courtesy, but without any substance that would allow the world to glimpse what rules will govern how these two superpowers behave in the coming years.

Since Trump’s return to office, every international gesture, including this week’s, has reinforced the idea that China speaks to the United States from a position of equality. Xi has not yielded an inch on commercial or geopolitical matters, while Trump shows an increasing dependence on Beijing’s neutrality, which can no longer be risked in any way. The aphorism “speak softly and carry a big stick” inspired U.S. diplomatic doctrine in the first half of the 20th century. The phrase is usually cited as a way to succeed in the long run. A century later, that diplomacy is run by a charlatan who exposes the limits of his own power every time he acts, as in Iran or in the tariff war. The one who now, increasingly, speaks softly and carries a big stick is the president of China.

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