The Middle East, on the brink of the abyss

The feared large-scale regional war in the Middle East is now one step closer after Iran launched a new direct attack on Israeli territory on Tuesday, in retaliation for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s offensive against the Shia militia Hezbollah, Iran’s armed wing in Lebanon, and the military incursions into Lebanese territory with the threat of an invasion that have already left more than a thousand dead. The Iranian regime fired around 180 projectiles at Israel, according to the Israeli army’s calculations. Alarms sounded throughout the country and the sky of Tel Aviv was covered with explosions as the projectiles hit or were intercepted by anti-aircraft defenses. The entire episode lasted about an hour. Israel reported no casualties last night. Tehran gave the impression that the operation was over. The Israeli government promised retaliation. The Middle East is on the brink of the abyss.

The attack was very similar in scale and execution to the one last April, the first time Iran directly attacked Israeli territory. On that occasion, more than 300 drones and missiles arrived in Israel slowly and early enough for Israeli defenses to eliminate almost all of them without causing damage. It was understood as a way for Iran to save face by making a show of force in the face of the targeted assassinations on Iranian soil of senior regime military personnel, but with the intention of not causing the kind of damage that would require a large-scale military response. Israel’s response was in fact very limited. The world understood that, despite the escalation, neither side wanted a direct war.

The setting for this latest attack is different. Netanyahu has ignored all calls for restraint or even the slightest humanitarian concession in his brutal war on Gaza, where horrors unseen in the 21st century are gathering pace. Over the past two weeks, Israel has expanded its attacks into Lebanon, a sovereign country, launched raids to secure territory close to the border, indiscriminately attacked Hezbollah through its communications systems, and bombed the militia’s top leaders in Beirut, killing hundreds of civilians in what amounts to a war crime.

American diplomacy, the only one with the theoretical power to influence Netanyahu, has completely failed in its attempts to stop, first, the massacre in Gaza, and then each of the steps in this irresponsible drift of the Israeli government towards total war. Yesterday’s is just the type of confrontation that the Joe Biden administration has been trying to avoid for the last year and it takes place just a few days after Netanyahu’s meeting with Biden and a speech at the United Nations in which the Israeli leader could not have been any clearer about his strategic intentions. Yesterday Biden gave the order to intervene in the defense of Israel against the Iranian attack.

The attack on Israel deserves international condemnation, and calls for easing tensions must continue without giving in to despair. But as long as Israel continues to extend its military offensive, now even outside Palestinian territory, justified by the terrible attack by Hamas, which will be a year old next Monday, attempts to avoid war sound increasingly rhetorical. Just yesterday, the Israeli army announced that it will expand its ground invasion of Lebanon. Netanyahu wants a full-scale war, and today he is one step closer to achieving it.

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