Nicolás Maduro maneuvers with Guyana

Venezuela has dusted off a territorial conflict with a neighboring country that dates back to the 19th century and which many had forgotten about. Last weekend, the government of Nicolás Maduro called a referendum asking Venezuelans whether they would agree with the annexation of Essequibo, a jungle territory rich in minerals and oil that belongs to Guyana. But behind its strategic relevance and size — Essequibo is roughly the size of the U.S. state of Georgia — there is a political maneuver. The vote in favor, according to the authorities, stood at 95%, with a turnout of 50%, although there is not a single photograph of a polling station documenting such widespread participation. Maduro called the referendum in October, the day after the opposition primaries were won by a large majority by María Corina Machado, whom the Chavista authorities subsequently disqualified from participating in electoral processes. Machado, according to polls, would be the favorite in the presidential race scheduled for 2024. But the holding of those elections is not yet assured.

Amid the escalation of tension with Guyana, Chavismo has used the territorial conflict to stir up the specter of internal conspiracy and took the opportunity to point the finger at Machado’s team and political allies. If the crisis worsens, the Venezuelan president would also have the power to decree a state of emergency and postpone the vote. The stage of alert is at a maximum. Guyanese President Mohamed Irfaan Ali, the only Muslim head of state in the Americas, a few days ago traveled to the border in military uniform and raised the flag of his country on a hill. Venezuela mobilized the army in the area, and the United States announced joint military maneuvers with Guyana.

The United Nations International Court of Justice is mediating in the dispute between the two countries. It did not order the suspension of the Venezuelan referendum but warned Caracas that it cannot do anything that “modifies the situation on the territory administered and controlled de facto by Guyana.” Among the questions on the referendum was one proposing the creation of a Venezuelan province or state in Essequibo and the granting of citizenship to 125,000 people living there.

The instances to resolve such disputes are international arbitration bodies, not popular consultations. Even so, Maduro shows no signs of intending to recognize the jurisdiction of the U.N. tribunal. In fact, the Venezuelan Supreme Court has ruled that Caracas does not abide by the decisions of international bodies in its territory. But while the conflict is being settled in the courts, Chavismo has the perfect excuse to declare “internal commotion” and postpone the elections indefinitely. And this is a threat to a fair electoral process with democratic guarantees.

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