Honduras under Nasry Asfura: State cuts, violence and the shadow of Juan Orlando Hernández

Nasry Asfura came to Honduras’s presidency with a promise that would define the course of his administration: to shrink the State to make it leaner and more “efficient” in a country of 11 million people. At a modest inauguration ceremony on January 27, following elections marred by allegations of irregularities, the new president, backed by U.S. President Donald Trump, asked to be judged by his actions and pledged to get to work immediately. Six months later, with a record tarnished by inefficiency and public dissatisfaction, his government is preparing to confront the return of former president Juan Orlando Hernández, who was convicted of drug trafficking in the United States and later pardoned by Trump.

The austerity drive began almost immediately. In less than a month, the new administration cut staff at 113 institutions and abolished 10 of them entirely. Those eliminated included the National Housing and Human Settlements Commission (Convivienda), the Secretariat for Transparency and the Fight Against Corruption, and the Program for Memory, Truth, Reparation, Justice and Non-Repetition for victims of serious human rights violations.

The first major test came in the healthcare system. During his first month in office, Asfura personally took charge of the portfolio and appointed himself minister of health. Under a declared state of emergency and through an exceptional regime, he approved a trust fund worth 500 million lempiras (about $18.7 million) to address the health crisis. According to the executive branch, the measure was intended to solve medicine shortages, reduce the surgical backlog, estimated at between 13,000 and 20,000 patients waiting for procedures, and restore the operational capacity of public hospitals.

That, however, quickly drew criticism. Various sectors warned that the scheme favored the contracting of private services through a health trust fund and extraordinary agreements. Rather than providing an effective solution, critics argued, it opened the door to the privatization of healthcare.

“Public healthcare has been at the core of corruption in Honduras, and I think that is one of the reasons why the president himself took on that role. But so far, the public perception remains that the fundamental problems persist. Hondurans who depend on public healthcare have seen very few changes,” says Agresio Girón, a political analyst and master’s graduate in political science from the University of Utah.

Four months on, the results have been limited. Hospitals continue to face complaints over shortages and operational deficiencies. In late May, the government itself acknowledged delays in the disbursement of funds and reported that only 227 surgeries had been carried out. Local newspaper La Prensa reported at the end of June that the government had spent 10 million lempiras (about $372,000) on 154 surgeries, at an average cost of $2,400 per procedure.

Beyond the debate over its effectiveness, the decision cemented Asfura’s governing style: a reliance on states of emergency, trust funds, and extraordinary executive powers.

Benefits for the private sector and closer ties with Israel

Not all of the extraordinary measures have advanced at the same pace. While the healthcare emergency has stalled, other decisions by the executive branch and Congress have been implemented swiftly.

In its first six months, the government not only benefited the private healthcare sector through multimillion-dollar contracts. It also approved the Law for the Strengthening and Protection of the Agro-Industrial Sector, which requires the Public Attorney’s Office and the police to act immediately in cases of land occupations affecting agro-industrial projects. Its implementation has already led to the forced eviction of three communities, including a Garífuna community on the Caribbean coast whose land rights are protected by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR). At the same time, Congress is considering amendments to the General Energy Law that would privatize electricity distribution.

“These three facts tell us who Asfura is governing for: he is governing for the private sector. By contrast, he has shown himself incapable and negligent toward the rest of the population,” says Lucía Avilés, a researcher at the Center for the Study of Democracy (CESPAD). According to Avilés, the situation is further complicated by the fact that, six months into his term, Asfura still faces allegations of electoral irregularities which, she says, undermine the legitimacy of his administration.

Israel Melo, a Jesuit priest and director of the Reflection, Research and Communication Team (ERIC-Radio Progreso), says: “One of Asfura’s biggest mistakes upon taking office is that his only interlocutors have been big business, Donald Trump, Javier Milei and Benjamin Netanyahu. He has remained disconnected from the population when his main challenge is to rebuild the legitimacy that was lost from the very beginning.”

Even before taking office, Asfura signaled a dramatic shift in foreign policy when he traveled to Jerusalem in January 2026 to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, describing Israel as a “true friend” of Honduras. Under his administration, the Honduran government has forged a close political and strategic alliance with the Israeli government, reopening what both countries have described as a “new era” in bilateral relations.

Anti-corruption efforts in a country long plagued by that scourge have also lost momentum under Asfura. The establishment of the International Commission against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (CICIH), one of his flagship campaign promises, quickly stalled. The president acknowledged that launching it during his first year in office would be “very difficult” and instead replaced it with a national anti-corruption policy whose results have yet to become visible. By contrast, the abolition of the Transparency Secretariat moved ahead without delay, and its functions were transferred to an attorney general’s office headed by Dagoberto Aspra, a former lawyer who represented Asfura in cases involving alleged corruption.

Security: The unraveling promise

The fight against crime has also deteriorated significantly. During the first quarter of 2026, homicides rose by 5.65% compared with the same period the previous year, and at least 18 massacres have been reported so far this year.

With a homicide rate of 26.6 per 100,000 inhabitants, Honduras remains the most violent country in Central America and the third most violent in Latin America, behind only Haiti and Ecuador. Despite this, the Asfura administration has yet to present a National Security Plan.

In mid-May, two massacres in the Caribbean region left 24 people dead, including five police officers. Although the government dismissed two senior police commanders and assembled an emergency interagency task force, more than two months later there has been no significant progress in the investigation.

This has been compounded by a rise in extortion and disappearances. Local media report that nearly 300,000 Honduran households pay the so-called “war tax,” a form of criminal extortion. The government responded by claiming, without providing evidence, that 80% of extortion complaints are false.

The situation surrounding gender-based violence is equally alarming. As of 16 July, women’s rights organizations had recorded 150 femicides, equivalent to one killing every 31 hours. The Visitación Padilla Women’s Movement for Peace has denounced the fact that 95% of these cases remain unsolved.

The shadow of Juan Orlando Hernández

Asfura’s first six months in office have also been shaped by the geopolitical context. His arrival in power coincided with Donald Trump’s support and with the U.S. pardon granted to former president Juan Orlando Hernández (JOH), who was convicted on drug-trafficking charges and remains a key figure within the ruling National Party.

According to analysts, Hernández’s return, which took place last Sunday, threatens to undermine the government’s ability to govern.

“In Honduras, there is a ‘deep state,’ a real power behind the formal power. There is Asfura’s power in the presidency and Tomás Zambrano’s in Congress, but also a structure entrenched within government and in organized-crime networks that answers to Juan Orlando Hernández,” says sociopolitical analyst Eugenio Moreno.

Although Washington maintains close ties with the current administration, concerns have emerged in the U.S. Congress over worsening security conditions, human rights violations and some of the government’s reforms. At the same time, relations with China have cooled, while Honduras has signalled a willingness to strengthen ties with other actors, including Russia.

For Asfura, the pressure stems not only from criticism of his administration but also from the challenge of governing in the shadow of his predecessor. Hernández returned on Sunday after a local court quashed the arrest warrant against him, while his supporters organized a nationwide welcome that threatens to overshadow a president who came to office promising security, efficiency and zero tolerance for crime and corruption.

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