Brazil’s G20 summit ends with minimal consensus under Trump’s shadow

The G-20, the club of the world’s major economies, ended its annual summit in Brazil on Tuesday with a modicum of unity but failure to reach a consensus on global challenges. The meeting, marked by the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon and the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House, has shown the extent of internal disagreements both in terms of the war horizon and on commitments to fight hunger and poverty, the great priority for the host president, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The final declaration of the participating leaders, released on Monday night, calls for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, to urgently speed up the delivery of humanitarian aid, but without mentioning either Israel or Egypt, which control the border crossings. The statement on Ukraine is even more generic, avoiding a reference to territorial integrity and limiting itself to encouraging any effort to achieve “a just and lasting peace.”

The second and final day was dedicated to the fight against climate change and was somewhat overshadowed by the arrests of five uniformed officers suspected of trying to kill the Brazilian president. In his speech, Lula called for greater ambition because the warning signs are not letting up. “I propose advancing their climate neutrality targets from 2050 to 2040 or even 2045. Without assuming their historical responsibilities, rich nations will not have the credibility to demand ambition from others.”

Both Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and President Emmanuel Macron of France regretted that the final declaration was so lukewarm on Ukraine. “It is too little when the G20 cannot find the words to make it clear Russia is responsible,” said the German leader. Macron went further: “This framework doesn’t work very well, and I’m being polite, we have not demonstrated this year our capacity to prevent or resolve conflicts.” Lula decided to close the final declaration at the end of day one, when, according to Reuters, the leaders of the United States, France and Germany were not in the room and after overcoming a protest from the French negotiator.

President Lula and Brazilian diplomacy feel they scored a point by achieving a final declaration on the first of the two days of the summit, when negotiations often extend to the end or even beyond the deadline. And they can boast that none of the G-20 members introduced footnotes, as Trump did in his first term.

A minimum consensus was reached after neutralizing an attempt by the G-7, the world’s most industrialized countries, to reopen the negotiations on the section on the war in Ukraine in order to toughen it up. The G-7 gave in, as did the Argentine leader Javier Milei, who signed the document although he issued a statement in which he rejected the conclusions on several issues.

The 22-page final document also mentions the need for a world without nuclear weapons. The care and attention with which diplomats negotiate every word at a summit like this contrasts with the brutality and speed with which events unfold on the ground, whether it be the first Ukrainian attack on Russia with American missiles immediately after the U.S. granted authorization, changes in Russian nuclear doctrine or the large-scale armed theft of humanitarian aid in Gaza.

Trump’s shadow has loomed over the final declaration and the entire development of the summit that marks Joe Biden’s international farewell. The Republican’s upcoming second term sows enormous uncertainties in international balances. Many see it as a threat to collaboration between countries and the future of multilateral organizations.

Advocacy of global cooperation

In contrast to the isolationist rhetoric of the U.S. president-elect, the G-20 in its final declaration advocates global cooperation, stating that “The challenges the global community faces today can only be addressed through multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow and the strengthening of global governance for both present and future generations.” With this premise, the members of the summit pledged “to work for a reinvigorated and strengthened multilateral system.”

For Brazil and other emerging countries, this means addressing once and for all the reform of the UN Security Council, financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank so that they reflect the current balance of power and not those of more than seven decades ago. This is an old-standing demand.

As well as re-treading well-trodden ground, the leaders agreed to forge new paths. In their final statement, they embraced Brazil’s proposal for a tax on the wealth of the super-rich: “With full respect to tax sovereignty, we will seek to engage cooperatively to ensure that ultra-high-net-worth individuals are effectively taxed.” It would be a tax that each country would have to levy, at an estimated rate of around 2% of wealth, and the resulting income could be invested in the fight against climate change or other purposes.

The differences with the agenda that Trump has promised for his second term were also reflected in the debate on sustainable development. The G-20 expressly advocated continuing the fight against climate change within the framework of the Paris Agreement, which the U.S. president-elect intends to abandon again, and urged the countries meeting at the conference in Baku (Azerbaijan) to reach an agreement on financing.

Lula called for an acceleration in emissions reductions and asked the summit, whose members emit 80% of greenhouse gases, to be more ambitious in order to achieve their goals. But at the same time, the final document avoids an express request to abandon fossil fuels. Argentine President Javier Milei, who was on the verge of boycotting the declaration, was a staunch opponent of all content related to the 2030 Agenda, that is, the UN’s sustainable development goals, which range from eradicating hunger to gender equality.

For Lula, this summit was an opportunity for the most powerful countries to look again at long-standing and little-treated problems in a world of crises and conflicts, such as hunger and poverty. With this G20, Brazil is writing another important chapter in its return to the international scene. Next year it will have another date with the first UN climate summit in the much-discussed Amazon that few have visited. COP 30 will be held in Belém.

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