France stops the far right
The mobilization against Le Pen has given victory to the left in the second round of the legislative elections, followed by Macron’s party. The National Rally, which was the favorite, remains as the third-biggest force
France has said no to the far right. The cordon sanitaire put in place by the left and the center of French President Emmanuel Macron made it possible for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) to be decisively defeated in Sunday’s snap election, in which the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) was the surprise winner.
According to the final official results released early Monday morning, the NFP won 182 seats in the new National Assembly, up from 153. Macron’s Ensemble coalition came in second place with 168 seats, down from 250, but still a solid and decisive bloc for the future government. And in third place was Le Pen’s RN, which headed into the elections the favorite after being the most voted party in the first round a week ago. Together with its allies, it won 143 seats: a victory considering it previously only had 88 seats, but a failure considering the expectations.
The result is a surprise. After RN’s overwhelming victory in the European elections on June 9, which led Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and bring forward the elections, and after the first round of the vote, some projections placed Le Pen’s party close to an absolute majority. It is a bitter disappointment for Le Pen and for her deputy, Jordan Bardella, whom she wanted to appoint as prime minister. And it is a huge relief for the majority of French people, who feared a far-right government, and who were worried that the election result would overshadow the Olympic Games, which begin in Paris on July 26.
The numbers do not give an absolute majority to any bloc. But they open the way to a grand coalition between the left and Macronism, with a sufficient number of deputies to form a stable and lasting government. The search for a consensus prime minister, possibly coming from the moderate left, but who could find support from the centrists and the moderate right, was expected to begin as early as Sunday night.
It will not be easy. The presidential France of the Fifth Republic has little practice with coalitions. There is a vast difference between the left and Macronism when it comes to economic policy. And there are also divisions between the radical left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of France Insoumise, and the social democrats that have been revived by the elections.
In the parties’ headquarters, and in the Elysée, they are crunching the numbers to see if the center, part of the moderate right and part of the left opposed to Mélenchon, can reach or get near to 289 seats, the threshold for an absolute majority. There are possible points of agreement between the more moderate left and Macronism, such as a pro-Europe stance and positions regarding Ukraine.
“We are leading but not with a full majority,” said Socialist MEP Raphael Glucksmann. “So we need to start a new era of acting like adults.”
After two years of paralysis and polarization in the National Assembly and in the street, and a president who since his re-election two years ago has governed on the right, the grand coalition could tilt France’s government toward more progressive policies. But the numbers — if it includes the moderate right — will push the government towards the center, with which Macron came to power in 2017.
Mobilization
The calendar established by the Constitution for the beginning of the legislature and new National Assembly has now been activated. The chamber must meet “the second Thursday” after the election. The first plenary is scheduled for July 18, a week and a day before the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics.
There is no deadline in the Constitution for when a new prime minister must be appointed. The outgoing prime minister, Gabriel Attal, announced that he would hand in his letter of resignation to Macron, who can either accept or reject it pending the appointment of his replacement. But he will remain in office until a replacement is found. Glucksmann is one of the names that have been floated to replace him. Other possible contenders include ecologist Marine Tondelier, whose voter base is the same as Le Pen’s, in the deindustrialized north; and Laurent Berger, a veteran trade unionist, who is pragmatic and respected by all.
In a statement, Attal celebrated the fact that the French had denied an absolute majority to the so-called “extremes”: the RN and La France Insoumise. Referring to the Macronist party, he declared: “We have held on, and we are still standing.”
Turnout in the runoff was the highest since 1997, at 66.6% — 20 points higher than in the previous legislative runoff in 2022. It is a reflection of the fact that, despite the start of the vacations, the French recognized that a lot was at stake in this election.
The prospect of a government in the hands of the extreme right triggered alarm bells. The parties of the center and the left mobilized. They withdrew their candidates from the second round in the districts where there were three finalists in order to concentrate the vote on the candidate most likely to defeat the RN. The strategy worked.
The voters of the left and center, some of the moderate right as well, largely followed the same tactics and voted for candidates that perhaps were not to their liking, but that were able to stop the extreme right. And this is how the so-called Republican front — the French form of the cordon sanitaire — once again succeeded, just as it did in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections, to give Macron victory over Le Pen.
Millions of French people were concerned at the possibility that Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s dauphin, would become prime minister. They feared that a party like the RN, founded by xenophobes and antisemites, would be at the helm of France — a country that boasts of being the homeland of human rights and the Enlightenment. The RN has evolved over time, but at its core it is still driven by an anti-immigration program and distinguishes between categories of French people. And these French people said no, challenging the election forecasts.
The leftist NFP coalition is the winner, although it is far from having an absolute majority. The Macronists of Ensemble are holding their own. And the RN, although far from its expectations, has dozens more seats, compared to the 88 it won in 2022 and the eight it won in 2017. Objectively, it is a considerable advance, and signals that the far right is here to stay.
“The tide is still rising,” Le Pen said. “Our victory has only been delayed.”
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