Mexico on alert after Trump backs a proposal to ban US diesel exports
If adopted, the initiative would be a blow for its southern neighbor, whose market depends on US imports for more than 40% of its diesel demand
The United States is threatening to shut off its diesel exports to curb a surge in energy prices driven by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. The proposal, pushed by some U.S. lawmakers and endorsed Tuesday by Donald Trump, threatens to shake fuel markets in Latin America and Europe.
In Mexico, the impact would be particularly significant because of the country’s heavy reliance on imports of this fuel. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Mexico imported an average of about 288,000 barrels per day of U.S. diesel in June of this year, 10% more than in the same month of 2025. Overall, purchases from the United States cover more than 40% of diesel demand in the Mexican market.
Alejandro Montufar, CEO of PetroIntelligence, a consultancy in the fuel sector, says Mexico faces significant exposure to a possible interruption of U.S. diesel exports. “An interruption of U.S. exports would force Mexico to replace part of supply through purchases from other markets, with longer transit times and higher logistical costs. A prolonged interruption could cause supply disruptions and price increases, with additional effects on transport, productive activity and inflation,” he said.
Alarm bells have gone off in the Mexican market after U.S. President Donald Trump voiced his support for a proposal by some lawmakers to ban diesel exports, after the fuel’s price soared to record levels because of the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. Diesel is the most widely used fuel for moving goods and people—a crucial input for agriculture, mining and transportation. For that reason, some Republicans have called for a total cut in exports to rein in the price surge.
The United States is the world’s largest refiner. However, a shortage of global supply and high crude prices have driven up prices for this strategic fuel, even within the United States. Over the past weekend, diesel hit a record $6.53 per gallon, a 77% increase compared with the same period in 2025. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said officials are analyzing whether a total or partial ban on diesel exports would work. The pressure over energy policy is growing in Washington as prices rise and the U.S. midterm elections approach.
Facing this scenario of international pressure and uncertainty over the future of energy supplies because of the situation in the Middle East and now in Ukraine, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, said this week at her regular press conference that the country has sufficient diesel production from its own refinery network, highlighting the Dos Bocas complex in Tabasco, and reiterated that the federal government will maintain the subsidy for this fuel. “We are going to maintain the diesel price; so far the subsidy is in place and we can close out the year without problems, with the support we are giving to the diesel price; supply is guaranteed,” she said on Monday.
Since the global energy price surge began earlier this year, the Ministry of Finance has implemented a battery of measures to contain the so-called gasolinazo. First, the executive has opted not to collect part of the Special Tax on Production and Services (IEPS). In the case of diesel, that support amounts to 100% and an additional stimulus has been implemented to ensure its price does not rise. To date, the Sheinbaum administration subsidizes more than nine pesos per liter of diesel. Without these supports, the fuel would be sold for more than 36 pesos.
At the same time, the federal government struck a voluntary maximum-price agreement with gas station operators: for regular gasoline the cap is 24 pesos per liter, while for diesel it is 27 pesos per liter. According to the executive, the agreement is voluntary and involves most companies in the sector. As part of these arrangements, Sheinbaum’s economic cabinet committed to keep working tables with business leaders to review operational costs, logistics chains and regulatory simplification.
For energy expert Ramsés Pech, a total U.S. export ban is unlikely and a partial cut is more probable; nevertheless, Mexico must be prepared for any scenario. The specialist said the country should expand its reserve margins, diversify the origin of diesel imports to Asia or Europe, and raise production levels across Pemex’s refining system, including the Dos Bocas refinery.
Diesel’s importance as a key fuel for economies is now on the geopolitical table. While waiting for tensions in the Middle East to ease and, consequently, for international prices to relax, the Mexican government is resisting the upward pressure with more subsidies. However, experts note that more than 200,000 barrels per day of imported diesel are not replaced overnight, and thus Mexico needs a diversification plan and greater production and storage infrastructure to face this type of crisis.
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