Isabel Díaz Ayuso, of the conservative Popular Party, is set to win today’s Madrid regional election with between 62 and 65 deputies, according to a poll carried out by GAD3 for television networks Telemadrid and TVE. With an absolute majority of 69 deputies, however, the incumbent premier would need the support of far-right Vox in order to form a government.
Together, the right-wing parties are set to secure between 74 and 79 seats, according to the poll. The left, meanwhile – made up of the Socialist Party (PSOE), Más Madrid and Unidas Podemos – are set to take between 56 and 63, according to the poll, which was carried out via telephone during the election campaign.
If the prediction comes true, this would allow the PP to hang on to power in a region where it has governed uninterruptedly for more than 25 years. It would also reward Ayuso’s risky decision to call this snap election, which was preceded by a bitterly fought campaign. From the last poll in 2019 to now, Ayuso was governing in coalition with Ciudadanos (Citizens), propped up by far-right Vox. According to the poll, Ciudadanos is set to lose all representation in the Madrid regional parliament tonight on the basis that it is expected not to secure the minimum 5% of votes needed to enter the chamber.
The PSOE is expected to secure 25 to 28 deputies; Más Madrid 21-24; and Unidas Podemos 10 to 11. Such a result would likely mean the end of PSOE candidate Ángel Gabilondo’s journey in regional politics – this is the third time he has run for Madrid premier, and he is likely to get a worse result this time around than previously, far from his win in 2019. In the end, the PP-Ciudadanos-Vox deal stopped him from coming to power.
For Más Madrid, tonight is likely to serve as confirmation that there is room for a leftist party with regionalist and environmental policies in the region, given that candidate Mónica García – the revelation of the campaign – improved on the result achieved by party founder Íñigo Errejón in 2019, despite being largely unknown to the public beforehand.
For Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias – who made a surprise decision to step down as deputy prime minister in the national government to run for Madrid premier – this predicted result would fulfill his minimum hopes, of achieving representation in the chamber with 10 to 11 deputies. He will, however, have fallen short of his greatest hope of putting together a leftist bloc that could keep Ayuso from power.
The Madrid regional assembly will be constituted on June 8, and a maximum of 15 days later, a name must be proposed for premier. If the candidate does not secure the support of the chamber, a two-month countdown will begin to a fresh election. According to the poll, however, this will not be necessary, and as expected ahead of the election, Díaz Ayuso will govern with Rocío Monasterio from Vox.
English version by Simon Hunter.
An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that the GAD3 survey was an exit poll, when in fact it was carried out via telephone during the campaign.